US Economy Outlook

The outlook here in the U.S. still looks grim, with the housing sector and mortgage crisis weighing on the economy. At the end of September, Consumer Confidence fell again to 99.8. The Case/Shiller data released for the month of July showed a .45% m/m decline in home prices. Ultimately, the rate cut decision should turn the housing sector around into next year. With the amount of inventory on the U.S. housing market, prices for homes lower, and a more attractive mortgage rate, the end of the housing meltdown could be near. Until that time, the Canadian economy should stay strong with the expectations for further U.S. rate cuts in the works. The Bank of Canada has put their rate increase on hold for the last couple of months, due mostly to credit issues and lower rates here. If there are further cuts here and increases in Canada, this could create another carry trade market that would not help support the USD.

As the fundamentals continue to weigh on the USD, the downside breaks are areas of opportunity to catch the new lows. The last time we wrote about this market, it was at the 1.0550 level and we waited for the breakout under the 1.05 level. Once again, we will wait for another low to get in. If not, we run the risk of being caught up in a pullback that could easily run 100+ pips. After the breakout below the 1.050 level, there has been a strong trend down that has been hard to fade. As expected, the market hit the 1.00 barrier and has absorbed the number with little pullback--as shown on the chart below. Once again we are looking to trade with the momentum on another break lower. Below you see the .9922 area as a point to watch for a short position. If the market can continue to sell off under that, our target is .9850 and .9970 area would be the stop loss area. There is strong sentiment the CAD will stay in the par area, so we are only looking for breakouts instead of trying to capture a long-term trend in these areas.

US Economy Update

• Global stocks are mixed but lower in Europe and the US today on news that Northern Rock Plc requested more emergency funds from the Bank of England. In Asia the Nikkei closed down -0.28%, Hong Kong closed up +0.29% at another record high, China closed +2.82% and Australia closed +0.45%. In Europe the DJ Stoxx 50 is trading down -0.32%.
• The Financial Times reported today that Northern Rock Plc, a UK bank, approached the Bank of England for more emergency loans, rekindling concern about the credit markets. Northern Rock borrowed a further 5 billion pounds ($10 billion) from the central bank to stay in business, the Financial Times reported. The BOE agreed to bail out Northern Rock on Sep 14 after Northern Rock requested an emergency credit line after mounting losses associated with the subprime mortgage crisis made it increasingly difficult for the bank to operate. Northern Rock has now borrowed close to 8 billion pounds from the BOE since Sep 14.
• China raised interest rates on some mortgages and increased minimum down payments to curb property speculation after real-estate prices rose last month at their fastest pace in more than 2-years. Loans for second homes and commercial sites will be charged 1.1 times the benchmark lending rates, up fom 0.9 times, and down payments will rise to 40%, from 30%, for housing loans and to half a property's value for commercial real estate. The PBOC is trying to slow a housing bubble as housing prices in 70 major cities rose 8.2% last month, the biggest gain since the government began the monthly survey in August 2005.
• The research department of the PBOC also said today that they expect the economy to expand Core PCE deflator – Today’s Aug personal income and spending report is expected to show an increase of +0.4% for both series, following July’s report of +0.5% and +0.4%, respectively. The market will mainly be watching the Aug core PCE deflator, which is expected to ease to +1.8% y/y from +1.9% y/y in July. The FOMC last week cut the funds rate target by 50 bp to 4.75%, but the FOMC in its post-meeting statement had an inflation warning, suggesting that the Fed might not cut rates another notch without some further improvement in the inflation statistics. A decline in today’s core PCE deflator, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation index, would be a step in the right direction.
• Chicago Purchasing Managers index – Today’s Sep Chicago purchasing managers index is expected to show a –0.8 point decline to 53.0, more than reversing the small +0.4 point increase to 53.8 seen in August. The purchasing managers survey is useful in the current environment since it gives some insight into whether business executives are panicking in the wake of the financial market crisis that started in early-August. So far, business executives seem to be taking the credit market crisis in stride, perhaps because the stock market has remained remarkably strong through the crisis.
• US consumer confidence – The final-Sep US consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan is expected to show a small upward revision by +0.2 points to 84.0 from the early-Sep level of 83.8. The early-Sep level of 83.8 was up by +0.4 points from Aug, thus stabilizing after the sharp –7.0 point decline seen in August from the 7-month high of 90.4 posted in July. The markets are keying heavily on consumer confidence and spending in the wake of the credit market crisis, which began in early August11.6% this year, faster than earlier forecasts of 10.8% and consumer prices will rise 4.6% this year, up fom a previous forecast of 3.2%.
• Core PCE deflator – Today’s Aug personal income and spending report is expected to show an increase of +0.4% for both series, following July’s report of +0.5% and +0.4%, respectively. The market will mainly be watching the Aug core PCE deflator, which is expected to ease to +1.8% y/y from +1.9% y/y in July. The FOMC last week cut the funds rate target by 50 bp to 4.75%, but the FOMC in its post-meeting statement had an inflation warning, suggesting that the Fed might not cut rates another notch without some further improvement in the inflation statistics. A decline in today’s core PCE deflator, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation index, would be a step in the right direction.
• Chicago Purchasing Managers index – Today’s Sep Chicago purchasing managers index is expected to show a –0.8 point decline to 53.0, more than reversing the small +0.4 point increase to 53.8 seen in August. The purchasing managers survey is useful in the current environment since it gives some insight into whether business executives are panicking in the wake of the financial market crisis that started in early-August. So far, business executives seem to be taking the credit market crisis in stride, perhaps because the stock market has remained remarkably strong through the crisis.
• US consumer confidence – The final-Sep US consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan is expected to show a small upward revision by +0.2 points to 84.0 from the early-Sep level of 83.8. The early-Sep level of 83.8 was up by +0.4 points from Aug, thus stabilizing after the sharp –7.0 point decline seen in August from the 7-month high of 90.4 posted in July. The markets are keying heavily on consumer confidence and spending in the wake of the credit market crisis, which began in early August

Energy Update

Nymex crude noted modest fall to trade below $82 per barrel in the electronic trade session on Thursday after ending yesterday at a record high price after hitting a new intraday high of $82.51 per barrel. ICE Brent crude slipped below $78 per barrel today after ending higher for previous three trading sessions.

While profit booking may have brought a pause to the rally witnessed in last few days however keeping the losses in a check are steeper than expected decline in crude oil stocks following which pulled them to an eight month low and some storm concerns as a system developing in the Atlantic led to some evacuations from Gulf of Mexico oil platforms but only a minor halt in production. The Gulf of Mexico accounts for a quarter of US oil output.

The US National Hurricane Center said yesterday that disturbance along the east coast of Florida that may move into the Gulf Of Mexico could develop into a hurricane. This led BP PLC, Chevron Corp. and Marathon Oil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell PLC to evacuate non-essential staff from the Gulf of Mexico while Exxon Mobil shut 1,000 barrels of daily crude oil production along with 55 thousand cubic feet per day of natural gas output

Also in background are refinery outages in Texas and California, concerns about conflict between Iran and the west over prior's nuclear research which resurfaced this week and expectations that the sharper than expected 50 basis point cut in US interest rates will be positive for economic growth, and therefore energy demand and will also pressure the dollar, which generally boosts the price of dollar-denominated oil and makes it cheaper, relatively, for holders of other currencies.

US crude oil stocks dropped 3.8 mn bbl to 318.8 mn bbl, gasoline stocks rose 0.4 mn bbl to 190.8 mn bbl while distillate stocks noted a build of 1.5 mn bbl to 135.5 mn bbl for the week ended Sept.14. Refineries operated last week at 89.6% of their capacity after operating at 90.5% in the previous week

US crude oil stocks fell for the fourth time last week and for the 10th time in past 11 weeks and was noted at the lowest level since the week ended Jan 5. Crude oil stocks dropped last week despite a rise in imports. Despite the 10% drop in past 11 weeks, crude oil stocks are at the upper end of the average range for this time of year however deficit over stocks a year ago widened to 3.9% last week.

Shanghai Copper Advances on U.S. Rate Cut; Zinc, Aluminum Gain

Shanghai Copper Advances on U.S. Rate Cut; Zinc, Aluminum Gain

Copper rose in Shanghai on speculation demand for the metal will rise because this week's interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve will help contain a housing slump in the world's largest economy.

The Fed cut its benchmark lending rate on Sept. 18 by half a point, more than economists forecast, to 4.75 percent. Copper often moves in tandem with growth in major economies.
``At the back of people's minds, the credit and housing problems in the U.S. are far from over, but the larger-than- expected rate cut offers investors some psychological assurance, which is giving a boost to metal prices,'' Shen Xiaoqiang, research manager at Jian Zheng Futures Co. in Jiangsu, China, said by telephone today.

Copper for December delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose as much as 680 yuan, or 1 percent, to 67,730 yuan ($9,012) a metric ton, and ended the day at 67,220 yuan a ton.
The metal for immediate delivery in Changjiang, Shanghai's biggest cash market, gained as much as 1.4 percent to 67,390 yuan a ton.

``At these prices, activity in the physical market is not lively, but demand is expected to increase in the fourth quarter and people will buy then if they have to, whatever the price,'' said Shen.

London Metal Exchange copper for delivery in three months fell 0.4 percent to $7,855 a ton at 3:32 p.m. in Shanghai, after gaining 4 percent yesterday. December delivery copper on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange was down 0.2 percent at $3.5680 a pound, after climbing 3.7 percent to $3.5755 a pound yesterday.

U.S. Data

``The rally in the international markets yesterday was too exuberant, given that the economic data out of the U.S. last night was bearish for metals,'' Shen said.

Builders in the U.S. broke ground on 1.331 million homes at an annual rate, the Commerce Department said in Washington yesterday, the fewest in 12 years and less than economists had forecast. Builders are the largest users of copper in the U.S., the world's second-largest consumer of the metal.

``There is still no sign of either the housing market or the residential construction industry hitting bottom and starting to stabilize,'' John Kemp, a London-based analyst at Sempra Metals Ltd., one of 11 companies trading on the floor of the London Metal Exchange, wrote in a report yesterday.

Separately, U.S. consumer prices unexpectedly dropped 0.1 percent from July, the first decline this year, the Labor Department reported yesterday.

Other Metals

Zinc in Shanghai for November delivery rose 0.5 percent to close at 26,820 yuan a ton, and LME zinc was down 1.3 percent at $2,945 a ton at 3:37 p.m. Shanghai time. Shanghai December aluminum ended up 0.2 percent at 19,370 yuan a ton. LME aluminum was 0.4 percent lower at $2,473 a ton.

Among other LME-traded metals, nickel fell 0.4 percent to $33,650 a ton at 3:39 p.m. in Shanghai. Lead lost 1.1 percent to $3,200 a ton, while tin didn't trade in Asia after rising yesterday to $15,350 a ton.

Asia gold up in bullish mood

Asia gold up in bullish mood

Spot gold rose in Asia Thursday but prices were rangebound after this week's sharp advances amid continuing bullish sentiment, traders and analysts said. Following the Federal Reserve's aggressive discount and fed-funds rate cuts, participants noted rising suspicion in the market that the impact from the subprime meltdown on the US economy may be stronger than expected.

The Fed's unanimous decision pointed to more bad news to come for the US economy, said Westpac Analyst Robert Rennie, with sky-high oil, gold and wheat prices leaving the Fed to face conflicting policy issues on further rate cuts and containing inflation. Gold built on the strongly positive lead from the Fed's cuts freeing up some liquidity and a strong rally by the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and euro against the US currency, said a Singapore-based trader.

Gold could easily breach Tuesday's high of $727 a troy ounce later in the trading day, particularly if the euro remains above $1.40 against the dollar, he said. But the increase in long positions in gold could result in some profit-taking, he added. Fat Prophets Analyst Gavin Wendt said the outlook for gold and oil was strongly positive, and retained a medium record price target of $1,000/oz for gold. US economic data will be keenly watched in the coming weeks for clues on US economic health, as will third quarter results from US banks, with Goldman Sachs due to report later Thursday.

"US housing starts weren't great, and inflationary pressures are on the up. But let's not forget that the Fed, now that it has moved to provide liquidity to the market, can always put rates back up," a trader said. Meantime, gold miners may increase the pace of de-hedging should prices rally above $730-735/oz, a Tokyo-based trader said, noting that Newcrest Mining has yet to buy back the remaining half of its hedgebook after the buyback of 2.3 million ounces earlier this month.

Other miners, foremost Barrick Gold and AngloGold Ashanti, still have large hedgebooks. "I'm not really sure they can stand aside or not. Those mining companies might cover their shorts quickly," he said.

US Economy Update

Dollar continues to hover near record low against Euro after reportsshowing US CPI unexpectedly slowed in Aug and more than expecteddeterioration in the housing markets. Headline CPI fell -0.1% mom inAug, down from 0.1% mom in Jul and below expectation of being flat.This dragged the yoy rate further to 2.0%. Core CPI rose 0.2% mom,dragging yoy rate down to 2.1%. Housing starts decreased -2.6% to1.331, a 12 years low, while building permits decreased -5.9% to1.31m annualized rate, lowest since 95. Both are worse than market'sexpectation. USD/CAD recovers mildly from 1.0080 new 30 year lowtoday and continues to consolidate after report shows canadian CPIeased to 1.7% yoy in Aug. Still, the core CPI remained elevated at2.2%, though this was down from inflation in June and July.

Economist predicts housing downturn

Economist predicts housing downturn

An economist who has long predicted this decade's housing market bubble would deflate said the residential real estate downturn could spiral into "the most severe since the Great Depression" and could lead to a recession.
Yale University economist Robert Shiller's comments came a day after the Federal Reserve responded to credit market turmoil by slashing the target federal funds rate by a half point to 4.75 percent.
Shiller, in testimony prepared for a hearing of the Joint Economic Committee said the loss of a boom mentality among the public "may bring on a further loss of consumer confidence." While he sees a "significant risk" of a recession within the next year, Shiller said actions by the Fed will lessen its severity.
Also in prepared remarks, Peter Orszag, director of the Congressional Budget Office, gave a more tempered forecast, saying that financial market turmoil and weakened consumer confidence "could pose serious economic risks" that are difficult to predict.

US Market Update

UK stocks today are mildly higher (FTSE +0.27%) as the UK mortgage banking situation improved today. However, European stocks as a whole are trading slightly lower with the European DJ Stoxx 50 down -0.15%. Asian stocks today closed lower with the Nikkei index down -2.02%, Hong Kong down -0.09%, China down -0.40%, and Australia down -1.26%.
The UK mortgage banking situation improved today after the Bank of England yesterday pledged to guarantee the deposits in Northern Rock and any similarly-situated solvent bank. Northern Rock's stock today rose +10%, regaining some ground after falling 56% in the previous two sessions. Competitor Alliance & Leicester Plc, recovered by 26% today.
FOMC meeting – The FOMC meets today in the most-anticipated FOMC meeting in years. The October federal funds futures contract yesterday closed at a yield of 4.875%, which means that the market is discounting an average 4.875% funds rate during the month of October. Under normal circumstances that would mean the market is discounting a 100% chance of a 25 bp rate cut today and a 50% chance of a 50 bp cut. However, the Fed has been allowing the funds rate to trade at an average of about 20 bp below the official funds rate target. That means that the 4.875% level in the October fed funds futures market is also consistent with the idea that the Fed may only cut the official funds rate target by 25 bp to 5.00% but then allow the average daily funds rate to trade 12.5 bp below the new 5.00% target at 4.875%.
In any event, the market is expecting the FOMC in its post-meeting statement to adopt a bias toward easing and to perhaps provide some assurance that the Fed will provide liquidity to the banking system as needed to prevent any fresh crisis of confidence. The market is also expecting the Fed today to cut the
\n\t\u003cli\> The US stock and bond markets may show a knee-jerk negative reaction today if the Fed only cuts the funds rate by 25 bp since some vocal market commentators are calling for a 50 bp cut. However, FOMC members have shown a wide variety of opinions about the impact of the financial market crisis and it may be difficult to garner a majority vote for a 50 bp cut. The market therefore will not be particularly surprised by a 25 bp rate cut and a negative reaction may be short-lived since the markets can then at least be assured that the Fed will cut another 25 bp notch at the next FOMC meeting on Oct 30-31.\u003cp\>\n\t\u003cli\> PPI – Today’s Aug PPI report is expected to show a decline of -0.3% m/m overall and a small +0.1% increase excluding food and energy. That would follow the July report of +0.6% m/m overall and +0.1% core. On a year-on-year basis, the overall Aug PPI is expected to ease to +3.2% from +4.0% in July, and the core PPI is expected to ease slightly to +2.2% from +2.3% in July. The expected decline in the year-on-year PPI figures would help the Fed justify a rate cut today even though the negative effects of the mortgage and financial market crisis have yet to be seen in the real economy to a significant degree. The Fed will be putting aside any inflation fears it may still have at present in favor of a pre-emptive easing, but a decline inflation figures would nevertheless be helpful to the Fed’s cause.\u003cp\>\n\t\u003cli\> NAHB index – Today’s Sep NAHB housing market index is expected to fall -2 points to 20, adding to the -2 point decline to the 16-year low of 22 seen in August. The expected report today of 20 would match the record low for the series posted in Jan 1991 (the history of the series goes back to Jan 1985). The NAHB index measures the sentiment among US homebuilders on the single-family home market, with 50 being the demarcation between a “good” versus “poor” outlook for the single-family home marketplace. Today’s report for September will more accurately pick up the sentiment of homebuilders in the wake of the mortgage and banking crisis, which started on Aug 8 when BNP Paribas announced a halt of investor withdrawals from three of its investment funds.",1]
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5.75% discount rate by at least the same amount as the funds rate target. The Fed may even cut the discount rate by more than the funds rate target, creating a narrower penalty margin of the discount rate above the funds rate target. For example, the Fed could cut the funds rate target by 25 bp to 5.00% and cut the discount rate by 50 bp to 5.25%, thus narrowing the penalty spread to 25 bp. The Fed has been trying to encourage banks to borrow at the discount window if needed, but banks can only do that at a penalty of more than 50 bp at present.
The US stock and bond markets may show a knee-jerk negative reaction today if the Fed only cuts the funds rate by 25 bp since some vocal market commentators are calling for a 50 bp cut. However, FOMC members have shown a wide variety of opinions about the impact of the financial market crisis and it may be difficult to garner a majority vote for a 50 bp cut. The market therefore will not be particularly surprised by a 25 bp rate cut and a negative reaction may be short-lived since the markets can then at least be assured that the Fed will cut another 25 bp notch at the next FOMC meeting on Oct 30-31.
PPI – Today’s Aug PPI report is expected to show a decline of -0.3% m/m overall and a small +0.1% increase excluding food and energy. That would follow the July report of +0.6% m/m overall and +0.1% core. On a year-on-year basis, the overall Aug PPI is expected to ease to +3.2% from +4.0% in July, and the core PPI is expected to ease slightly to +2.2% from +2.3% in July. The expected decline in the year-on-year PPI figures would help the Fed justify a rate cut today even though the negative effects of the mortgage and financial market crisis have yet to be seen in the real economy to a significant degree. The Fed will be putting aside any inflation fears it may still have at present in favor of a pre-emptive easing, but a decline inflation figures would nevertheless be helpful to the Fed’s cause.
NAHB index – Today’s Sep NAHB housing market index is expected to fall -2 points to 20, adding to the -2 point decline to the 16-year low of 22 seen in August. The expected report today of 20 would match the record low for the series posted in Jan 1991 (the history of the series goes back to Jan 1985). The NAHB index measures the sentiment among US homebuilders on the single-family home market, with 50 being the demarcation between a “good” versus “poor” outlook for the single-family home marketplace. Today’s report for September will more accurately pick up the sentiment of homebuilders in the wake of the mortgage and banking crisis, which started on Aug 8 when BNP Paribas announced a halt of investor withdrawals from three of its investment funds.

LME Data

COPPER: DOWN -2000
ZINC: DOWN -1500
ALUMINIUM : UP 6150
NICKEL: UP 774
LEAD: DOWN -675

Impact;
Positive for Copper, Zinc and Lead. Negative for Aluminum and Nickel

Currency Update

Currency Update

The forex markets are quietly mixed in tight range as traders are preparing for tomorrow's FOMC rate announcement. Sterling continues to weaken across the board as BOE's bail out of Northern Rock continues to weigh on the currency. Former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan warned on an interview on Sunday that Fed should be cautious not to in lower interest rates too aggressively considering the risks of resurgence in inflation. Also, he expected that the slump in the housing market would likely deepen further that most expected and record as much as a double-digit drop. Markets have cooled down the speculations of a 50bps hike from Fed on Tuesday but opinions remain divided.

Weekly Currency and US Economy

Weekly Currencies

The U.K. posted a favorable jobs report on Wednesday, showing a total of 31.69 million jobs, the most since records began in 1959. However, nerves were tested on Friday when the Bank of England said that it made an emergency loan to Northern Rock, the U.K.'s fifth largest mortgage lender. The Bank of England has maintained a stricter response to the subprime problems than either Europe or the U.S. and Friday's big drop in the pound hinted at the consequences of that policy. The December pound closed the week down 2.22 cents at $2.0049.

It was a tough week for the yen. On Monday, Japan's Cabinet Office reported that the economy contracted .3% in the second quarter of 2007, much worse than anticipated. Then on Wednesday, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe unexpectedly resigned from office and checked himself into a hospital for stress-related illness. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party will hold an election on September 19th to choose the next Prime Minister. In the meantime, the December yen finished the week down .0157 at .8784.

Australia is one economy that has slipped by most of the recent financial problems unharmed. The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday that they expect Australia's real GDP to increase 4.4% in the fiscal year that ends on June 30, 2008. The December Australian dollar climbed 1.62 cents to 84.02.

This week's China Watch showed that in August, consumer prices were at their highest level in 11 years, retail sales were up 17.1% from a year ago, and industrial production slowed slightly, to a 17.5% annual gain. On Friday, the People's Bank raised the one-year lending rate from 7.02% to 7.29%, the highest in nine years and the fifth increase this year. The government has also increased banks' reserve requirements seven times this year.

Weekly US Economy

Disappointment from last week's weak unemployment report hung over the markets again this week and Friday's report that August retail sales without autos were down .3% did not help. On the positive side, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index did improve slightly in September. The December U.S. dollar index was down .265 to 79.46, the lowest spot close in 15 years. The December S&P 500 gained 25.60 to 1,498.00 with high hopes for a federal funds rate cut on Tuesday.

With little economic news out this week, the market did hear some interesting comments from interviews with former Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan. Among the highlights, he said that he did not recognize a serious problem in the subprime mortgage market until 2005 and he also said that Fed Chairman Bernanke has made the same decisions that he would have made, were he still in office. The June eurodollars were down .165 at 95.60. The December U.S. T-bonds ended the week down 15/32nds at 112.27/32nds.

Weekly Energy, Metals

Weekly Energies

On Tuesday, OPEC threw the world a bone by announcing a 500,000 barrel per day production increase, but not until November 1st. The very next day, the Department of Energy said that U.S. crude oil supplies dropped 7.1 million barrels the previous week and gasoline supplies were down 700,000 barrels. It is very hard to see at this point how refiners are going to be able to increase heating oil supplies for winter without reducing record-low gasoline supplies even further. November reformulated gasoline climbed 5.40 cents to $2.0144.

Hurricane Humberto surprised investors by going from a tropical depression to a hurricane in just 18 hours and hit East Texas and Louisiana with heavy rain and damaging winds. There was no significant damage reported to the oil or gas rigs in the Gulf of Mexico.

The week for natural gas began with news that militants sabotaged six gas pipelines in Mexico and then the market absorbed concerns about Hurricane Humberto. Despite the shock, U.S. natural gas supplies remain high, at 3.069 billion cubic feet with another six weeks available to build supplies even more. November natural gas ended the week up 60.8 cents at $7.054.

Weekly Metals

On Thursday, GFMS, Ltd. said that world gold mine production was up 3% in the first half of 2007 from last year's low levels. Even so, they expect prices to stay high, averaging $690 in the second half of 2007 and working higher in 2008. December gold finished the week up $8.10 at $717.80, the highest spot close in over a year, with high hopes that the Federal Reserve will cut the federal funds rate when they meet on September 18th.

On Tuesday, copper prices got a lift after a report showed that China's copper imports were up 43% in the first eight months of 2007 from a year ago. Copper has been a little torn lately between strong economic news from China and weak economic news here in the U.S. By Friday afternoon, December copper had gained back last week's loss, closing up 14.10 cents at $3.3925.

US Data

Us Jobless claims: +4k to 319k in sept. 8 wk: 325 Exp

Impact; Data is positive for dollar, negative for bullion.

Energy Update

Energy Update :

Oct crude oil prices this morning are trading -15 cents and Oct gasoline is trading -1.13 cents. Some long liquidation pressure has emerged now that Hurricane Humberto made landfall last night with 85 mph winds but only caused heavy rain and flooding and only temporary disruptions to oil rigs, shipping, and refineries in the area.

Oct crude oil prices yesterday rallied $1.68 to a new record high of $79.91 and Oct gasoline rallied 3.49 cents. Bullish factors yesterday included Humberto, a new tropical depression in the east Atlantic, and a bullish DOE report. The market is watching a new tropical depression that is currently about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and that is headed toward the Caribbean.

Yesterday's DOE report was bullish with a sharp 7.0 mln bbl drop in crude oil inventories (versus expectations for a 3 mln bbl drop), which left oil inventories 6.4% above the 5-year seasonal average, the least accommodative level in 4 months.

Meanwhile, gasoline inventories fell 666,000 bbl and are -4.7% below the 5-year seasonal average. Distillate inventories rose +1.8 mln bbl for the eighth consecutive weekly rise and are adequate at 1.0% above the 5-year seasonal average. Oil prices yesterday rose again despite OPEC's decision on Tuesday to raise its production quota by 500,000 bbl as of Nov 1.

India's gold demand low as bigger price falls eyed

India's gold demand was low on Thursday as buyers waited for prices to ease further from their recent highs or stabilize to be able to make purchases, dealers said.

"There is a little bit of buying from those in dire need," said Ajit Shinde of Magna Projects Pvt Ltd in Kolkata, a large wholesaler. "But it should pick up for the festivals."

Shinde said for the time being, his clients, mostly in Kolkata, were willing to wait for a fall to 8,900 rupees per 10 grams.

Dealers in banks said demand was low with people hoping for a fall to $700 an ounce in overseas markets.

Foreign spot gold was down from Tuesday's 16-month high of $714.20, as the dollar, with which gold usually has an inverse relation, recovered against other currencies. It also eased on investor caution ahead of a U.S. interest rates meet next week.

A slightly stronger rupee helped lower Indian gold prices, but not enough to inspire many buyers, dealers in banks said.

India's busy season is currently on with Ganesh Chaturthi festival falling on Saturday. People, particularly in south India, usually buy ornaments for their idols or for themselves at this time of the year.

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LME Data

LME Data:
Aluminum 894625 +3975
Copper 137075 -850
Nickel 28404 +660
Lead 23875 +100
Zinc 72975 -70

Impact: Data is positive for Copper and Zinc. Negative for Aluminium, Nickel and Lead

ECB says euro zone economic fundamentals remain strong

The European Central Bank said euro zone economic fundamentals remain strong despite the recent turmoil in credit markets.

"Incoming macroeconomic data confirm the strong fundamentals of the euro area economy and support a favourable medium-term outlook for real GDP growth," the ECB said in its September monthly bulletin.

"Data on activity in the third quarter -- from various confidence surveys and indicator-based estimates -- remain favourable overall and support the assessment that real GDP is growing at sustained rates," it said.

Against this background of strong economic fundamentals, inflation risks are still tilted to the upside and interest rates therefore remain "on the accommodative side", it said.

The ECB left its main interest rates unchanged at 4.00 pct at last week's governing council meeting, citing uncertainty about the economic impact of the recent financial market turmoil.

"It is appropriate to gather additional information and to examine new data before drawing further conclusions for monetary policy," it said. But it said it will monitor all economic developments very closely and continue to pay close attention to developments in financial markets.

The ECB said inflation is likely to increase to levels above 2.0 pct in the months ahead from 1.8 pct currently. Strong money and credit growth continue to point to inflation risks over the medium to longer term, it said..

Commodities Market Commentary

Copper stayed lower in early afternoon trade as investors took profits after yesterday's gains, with rising stockpiles and the easing of strike threats in Peru also depressing sentiment.

"After the extended rally seen on the run up to the close last night, prices have begun to take stock and profit taking has been in abundance from the beginning of the premarket session," said analysts at RBC Capital Markets. "Stock reporting rime showed net inflows for copper, aluminium and nickel, and outflows for the rest of the complex."

At 1.10 pm, copper for three-month delivery was trading at 7,401 usd against 7,475 usd at the close yesterday.

News that workers at Southern Copper Corp have called off a strike due for today after the company agreed to restart wage negotiations is also weighing on prices, analysts said.

Strike-related news had contributed strongly to yesterday's gains. Southern Copper is the world's fifth largest producer of copper. Its Ilo smelter and Cuajone and Toquepala mines have been plagued with strike action this year.

Meanwhile the LME said its stocks of the red metal increased by 650 tonnes this morning, bringing total LME monitored inventories to 137,925 tonnes, around 40 pct higher than they were two months ago.

Among other base metals, aluminium also dipped, helped by a sharp rise in LME monitored stockpiles. The metal slid to 2,444 usd from 2,460 usd yesterday. Inventories of the grey metal rose 6,000 tonnes this morning to 890,650 tonnes, according to the exchange. Stocks of the metal have risen by 5 pct in the last week.

Meanwhile lead, yesterday's strongest gainer, was steady at 3,020 usd against 3,030 usd at the close last night. The metal has been buoyed throughout the year by supply shortages from key producer Australian, and from China, after the imposition of an export tax on the metal earlier this year.

Nickel meanwhile inched up to 27,150 usd from 27,000 usd, and tin to 15,250 usd from 15,200 usd. Zinc was flat at 2,760 usd.

Gold hit a fresh 16-month high of 714.40 usd this morning after the dollar fell to an all-time low against the euro, and as the metal continued to attract support from inflation-hedging with oil prices close to record highs.

At 12.53 pm, spot gold was trading at 710.70 usd, an ounce against 711.80 usd at the close. Earlier, the metal touched a fresh 16-month high of 714.40 usd.

Among other precious metals, platinum was steady at 1,298 usd against 1,300 usd in late New York trade, while its sister metal palladium dipped to 331 usd from 333 usd. Silver was steady at 12.64 usd against 12.65 usd..

LME UPDATE

Aluminum 890650 +6000
Copper 137925 +650
Nickel 27744 +498
Lead 23775 -125
Zinc 73675 -575

Impact; Data is positive for Zinc, Lead. Negative for Copper, Aluminium and Nickel.

US Market techincal summary

COMEX SILVER (DEC)
The market now above the 40-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend has turned up. Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. The next upside target is 1305.0. The next area of resistance is around 1294.0 and 1305.0, while 1st support hits today at 1273.1 and below there at 1263.1.

COMEX GOLD (DEC)
Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. Since the close was above the 2nd swing resistance number, the market's posture is bullish and could see more upside follow-through early in the session. The near-term upside objective is at 731.0. The market is approaching overbought levels with an RSI over 70. The next area of resistance is around 726.9 and 731.0, while 1st support hits today at 715.3 and below there at 707.8.

COMEX COPPER (DEC)

Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range could accelerate a price break if support levels are broken. The cross over and close above the 18-day moving average indicates the intermediate-term trend has turned up. If yesterday's gap higher on the day session chart holds, additional buying could develop this session. The market has a bullish tilt coming into today's trade with the close above the 2nd swing resistance. The next downside target is 331.05. The next area of resistance is around 341.90 and 343.75, while 1st support hits today at 335.55 and below there at 331.05.

CRUDE OIL (NOV)

Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. The near-term upside target is at 77.96. The market is approaching overbought levels with an RSI over 70. The next area of resistance is around 77.62 and 77.96, while 1st support hits today at 76.38 and below there at 75.47.

EURO trading at all time high

The euro hit a new all-time high of 1.3880 usd on further evidence that the European Central Bank is sticking to its hawkish stance just as the US Federal Reserve is widely tipped to cut its
benchmark interest rate.
This divergence between the two central banks pushed the euro to an all-time high earlier this morning and the dollar index has now fallen below its 1995 lows and is only 1.5 pct away from its Sept 1992 low of 78.19.

"The dollar is under significant pressure....the main drivers of dollar weakness appear to be collapsing short-term interest rate differentials as markets look to a series of reductions in the Fed funds rate and a related rise in risk appetite," said Steve Pearson, currency strategist at HBOS.

The most explicit hawkish comments from the ECB came yesterday when thecentral bank's president Jean-Claude Trichet stated that investors who"behave improperly will have to pay the price of their mistakes".


Analysts said this sort of rhetoric suggests that the ECB is nowhere nearcutting interest rates in the current liquidity crisis for fear ofundermining hard-won economic stability even if the US Federal Reserve, aswidely expected, cuts its benchmark funds rate a quarter point next Tuesday.

"If the ECB's hawkish tone continues however, the realisation that ECBpolicy has decoupled from the Fed, will imply that the euro strengthens evenfurther," said Stuart Bennett, analyst at Calyon.

Overall, currency markets remain dependent on the level of risk appetitein the markets overall, and in particular, are tracking equities. Rising stocks have allowed the dollar to rise against the yen as anincreased appetite for risk promotes the carry trades, while at the same timethe euro moves higher against the dollar.

Energy Update

Oil Steadies Below $78, OPEC Meeting in Focus

Oil prices steadied on Tuesday, as OPEC was set to debate a token rise in production, after climbing to near a record high above $78 due to pipeline attacks in the world's fifth-largest crude producer Mexico.

Several OPEC members have said they see no need to raise output at the group's meeting in Vienna on Monday as current stock levels are comfortable, though an OPEC source said on Monday Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab states back a token rise.

Any OPEC move to raise oil output at its meeting due to start 9 am London time on Tuesday would use the organization's current production as a starting point, not its nominal ceiling, a delegate in Vienna said on Tuesday.

"We continue to see some sort of complicated outcome such as the announcement of delayed production increases as the most likely one, as ministers are faced with a fast tightening market on one hand and growing economic risks on the other," said Barclays Capital.

The 10 OPEC members subject to output restrictions are already pumping around 1 million barrels per day (bpd) above their 25.8 million-bpd target, Reuters data show.

A number of consuming nations, including top consumer the United States, have called on OPEC to increase oil supplies as they see stocks declining rapidly in the coming peak winter season.

"U.S. crude stocks won't stop decreasing in the next weeks whatever OPEC's decision," said SG Commodities.

A plan to increase output may struggle to win support from members including Iran and Venezuela that take a more hawkish price view. Libya was quick to voice its opposition, saying on Tuesday that the group should not be swayed by short-term price movements.

Prices rallied to $78.47 in electronic trade on Monday after a series of attacks that caused explosions on Mexico's oil and gas pipelines. Chief executive Jesus Reyes Heroles of state firm Pemex said this will not hit the country's oil output or exports but cut off a quarter of its natural gas flow.

OPEC Likely to Keep Oil Quota Unchanged

"At this point, it doesn't seem to be a serious problem but it could potentially pose a longer-term problem, which is why futures reacted so strongly," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates, adding there had been an influx of hedge fund money.

Oil prices are 27% up this year and have tripled since 2002 as investors buy into growing consumer demand, real or potential supply disruptions in producers such as Nigeria and Iran and infrastructure constraints such as a lack of refining.

LME Inventory

Lme Inventory:
Aluminum 884650 +6025
Copper 137275 -325
Nickel 27246 +486
Lead 23900 -275
Zinc 74250 +0

Impact;
Data is positive for Copper and Lead, negative for Aluminium, Nickel

Potato traders be cautious

Potato - Traders be cautious

Dear All

MCx Potato Sept closed on 10th Sept with OI = 508

Todays Volume = 40

Todays OI= 309

Where is other 159 lots?????

Think again and reply on this Group.
http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/commoditytalk/message/2406

regards.

Kamlesh Jogi

Mail: kamleshjogi@gmail.com
Mob: 09382955522


http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/commoditytalk/message/2406

Energy Update

Oil slid on Monday ahead of an OPEC meeting in Vienna that is due to set production levels for peak winter demand.

Most members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries seem happy with OPEC's current output, but Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest exporter, has yet to signal its views.

U.S. Market Preview

U.S. Market Preview

Asian stocks today closed with some sharp losses as the markets played catch-up to last Friday's sharp losses on Wall Street due to the weak US Aug payroll report. The Nikkei index today closed -2.22% and Australia closed -1.39%, although Hong Kong closed +0.07% and China's CSI 300 index closed +1.56%. The European DJ Stoxx 50 index is down only -0.15% this morning, suggesting that the immediate fall-out from last Friday's US payroll report may be over.

This week’s US economic calendar is relatively light following last Friday’s unemployment report. Today brings the July consumer credit report (expected +$9.1 billion). Tomorrow brings the July US trade deficit report (expected slightly wider at -$59.0 bln vs -$58.1 bln in June). Wednesday brings the weekly MBA mortgage applications index. Thursday brings weekly unemployment claims, the Treasury’s 10-year T-note auction, and the Aug Treasury monthly budget statement (expected -$79.5 bln). Friday brings Aug retail sales (expected +0.5% overall and +0.3% ex-autos), Aug import prices (expected +0.3%), Q2 current account deficit (expected slightly narrower at -$190.0 bln vs -$192.6 bln in Q1), the early-Sep US consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan (expected +0.6 to 84.0), and July business inventories (expected +0.3%).

The market is mainly looking ahead to next Tuesday’s FOMC meeting, which is expected to produce at least a 25 bp rate cut in the funds rate target to 5.00%. There is only a remote chance that the Fed will cut rates prior to next week’s meeting due to last Friday’s disappointing July payroll report of –4,000. Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said in an interview this past weekend that the surprise Aug payroll report showing a loss of jobs was “not encouraging.” However, he said that “We want to be careful not to overweight one piece of information” in making a rate decision and that “I’ve not made up my mind at all” on whether a rate cut is needed. He added that, “all of August’s numbers are going to be a little noisy” and that “We need to take some things with a grain of salt. Retail sales numbers were pretty good.” Mr. Plosser is not an FOMC member, but his comments suggest that Fed members are not being lobbied by Mr. Bernanke for an emergency Fed rate cut before the Sep 18 meeting and that the Fed plans to stick to its schedule of considering a rate change at the Sep 18 meeting.

The market is currently discounting a 100% chance of at least a 25 bp rate cut to 5.00% at next Tuesday’s FOMC meeting. The market is discounting an average 4.81% funds rate average in October, which means that the market is discounting either a 76% chance of a 50 bp rate cut on Sep 18, or that the Fed will only cut the official target by 25 bp to 5.00% but then inject sufficient reserves during the month to keep the funds rate average trading an average of 19 bp below the new 5.00% target during October. Either way, the market is expecting the Fed to pursue a de facto 4.81% funds rate average in September.

The Fed is not currently paying much attention to its official 5.25% funds rate target as it battles the banking crisis with temporary reserve injections. The Fed pushed average daily funds rate down to the 4.60% to 5.00% area in the 2 weeks immediately after the banking crisis (which began on Aug 9), and the funds rate average in the past 2 weeks has been in the range of about 5.00-5.25%, just mildly below the 5.25% funds rate target.

Looking ahead, the market is discounting an overall 100 bp rate cut to 4.25% by year-end and nearly an overall 125 bp rate cut by next summer. A 100 bp rate cut in the pace of a few months represents market expectations for a dramatic move in Fed policy. The extent of the expectations for Fed easing suggest that the market believes that a US recession is now fairly likely.

LME Inventory

LME Update:

Aluminum 878625 +11700
Copper 137600 -175
Nickel 26760 +828
Lead 24175 -300
Zinc 74250 +4100

Impact: Data is negative for Aluminum, Nickel and Zinc. Positive for Copper and Lead

Currency Update

Focus on UK PPI and Fed Speakers

Yen and Swissy are mildly higher on risk aversion as the week starts. Meanwhile, dollar remains weak in tight range. UK PPI inflation will be the main featured economic data today. No US economic data is scheduled and markets focus will likely turn to Fed speakers including Lockhart, Yellen, Fisher and Mishkin. While a cut is widely expected, opinions on whether it will be 25bps or 50bps, or whether there will be an inter-meeting cut, is divided. Fed speakers will continue to be focus of the markets.

UK PPI input is expected to have another monthly drop of -0.2% mom while yoy rate is expected to be 1.9%. PPI output is expected to rise 0.2% mom, 2.5% yoy in Aug. Released in Asia, Japan Q2 GDP final print revised further lower than expected to -1.2% annualized rate, with qoq rate down to -0.3%. Though, the yen remains supported by risk aversion.

US Economic Data Next Week

Important US Data Next Week
Week of September 10 - September 14
Date	IST	Release	For	Consensus	Prior
Sep 10	0:30	Consumer Credit	Jul	$9.5B	$13.2B
Sep 11	18:00	Trade Balance	Jul	-$59.0B	-$58.1B
Sep 12	20:00	Crude Inventories	07.szept	NA	-3972K
Sep 13	18:00	Initial Claims	08.szept	330K	318K
Sep 13	23:30	Treasury Budget	Aug	-$85.0B	-$64.7B
Sep 14	18:00	Current Account	Q2	-$190.0B	-$192.6B
Sep 14	18:00	Export Prices ex-ag.	Aug	NA	0.0%
Sep 14	18:00	Import Prices ex-oil	Aug	NA	0.2%
Sep 14	18:00	Retail Sales	Aug	0.5%	0.3%
Sep 14	18:00	Retail Sales ex-auto	Aug	0.2%	0.4%
Sep 14	18:45	Industrial Production	Aug	0.3%	0.3%
Sep 14	18:45	Capacity Utilization	Aug	82.0%	81.9%
Sep 14	19:30	Business Inventories	Jul	0.3%	0.4%
Sep 14	19:30	Mich Sentiment-Prel.	Sep	máj.83	ápr.83

Egergy Update

Energy: (Positive for Crude)-
OPEC is not expected to raise production at its meeting next week even if oil prices top new all time highs, which seems increasingly likely considering recent market action.

US Data Update

US Data Update:

U.S. Non farm payrolls Aug Exp 110 K Prv 92 K Act -.40KU.S.
Avg. hourly earnings M/M Aug Exp 0.30% Prv 0.30% Act .030%
U.S. Unemployment rate Aug Exp 4.60% Prv 4.60% Act 4.60%

Impact:

• Data is positive overall for Bullions.
• U.S. AUG CONSTRUCTION JOBS DOWN 22000.BASE METALS COULD FALL ON THIS DATA .
• The dollar plunged after a key employment report came in much weaker than expected, cementing expectations for a cut in interest rates and aggravating fears that the US is heading into a recession.

Currency Update

Currency Update:

Dollar is sold off sharply across the board after shocking weak job report from the US. For the first time in four years, Non-Farm Payroll recorded a drop in -4k jobs in jobs in the US economy in Aug. July's number was revised downward from 92k to 68k. Unemployment rate stayed at 4.6%. Fed Chairman Bernanke said last week that Fed will "act as needed" to "limit the adverse effects on the broader economy that may arise from the disruptions in financial markets". Today's job reports is leaving not choice to the Fed but a rate cut.

Jim Wyckoff's Analysis: (Gold)-

Jim Wyckoff's Analysis: (Gold)-

December gold futures on Thursday hit a fresh six-week high as the bulls have regained solid upside near-term technical momentum. Prices are in a steep uptrend from the August low, and have tacked on almost $50 an ounce from the August low. The next major upside price objective for the gold bulls is to produce a close above strong technical and psychological resistance at the $701.00 level. If the bulls can see closes above $700.00 an ounce in the coming days, then that would give the bulls better upside technical momentum and also open the door to larger price gains. A drop back below solid chart support at the $680.00 level would provide the gold bears with some fresh downside technical momentum. All gold traders will continue to keep an eye on the value of the U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies. Any strong rebound in the greenback would find gold bulls again on the defensive.

MCX- Nickel Contract Changes

Dear Trader ,
Please make a note that, MCX has launched Nov-07 Nickel contract today. The launch got delayed for few days due to couple of modifications we sought from FMC. The Tick size is now increased to 50 paise (from 10 paise). I am sure we all understand that intra day players need minimum remuneration (at the tick size) after considering the transaction charges. With Nickel 10 paise tick, rewards were not working out well, hence the upgrade to 50 paise.
Secondly, now the maximum order size is of 24 Mts (96 lots) to match the import tonnage which comes in Full Container Load (FCL) of 24 Mts.
There is no change in the Sept-07 and Oct-07 Nickel contracts – modifications are being carried out from the fresh launch onwards.

Regards,

Kamlesh Jogi

Source : MCX

LME Inventory Data

Lme Update:
Aluminum 866925 +8000
Copper 137775 +0
Nickel 25932 +384
Lead 24475 -200
Zinc 70150 +1500


Impact:
Data is Positive for Lead, Negative for Aluminum, Nickel and Zinc

Shanghai warehouse stocks:

Shanghai warehouse stocks:
Copper-3204
Aluminium+1623
Zinc -837

Impact: Data is positive for Copper, Zinc. Negative for Aluminium

LME Update

Following are the base metal inventory updates on the London Metal Exchange as on 06th Sept 2007 at 13.30 hrs IST :-
]Copper +775
Aluminum +4,925
Nickel +462
Zinc +400
Lead -75
Tin +85

Impact: Data is positive foe Lead, Negative for Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc and Tin

LEAD UPDATE

LEAD UPDATE

MCX LEAD:
Market is positive on our short term outlook report , we gave a buying call on (4th Sept 2007) cmp: 126.40 (5th Sept 2007)

(Those want our report can send a request at research@aurumcommodities.com )

Regards,

Kamlesh Jogi
mob: 09382955522

Energy

Crude Oil Sept:
Market have turned very bullish as per expectations, Major support 3035 and 3006. major resistance 3079 and 3095. Traders can buy on corrective dips for intra day.

Natural gas:
Inventory data suggest a further down fall in prices, supported te4chnicals, Major support 224, 221. Major resistance 232 and 246

BaseMetals

Aluminum Sept:
Market have turned down after heavy inventory data, traders can sell on small pullback for intra day. Major support 99.30, 98.85 Major resistance 100.5 and 101.25

Copper Nov:
Fundamentals still strong for Copper, Technically market is weak, Major support 297.50 and 296.50. Major resistance 301.25, 303.25 and 305

Zinc Sept:
market is looking weak on charts, major dips can be used as a buying opportunity, Major support 121.50 and 120.10. Major resistance 124.25 and 126.75

Lead September:
Open interest increased with the fall but some recovery was also witnessed from the low of Rs 122.30. Major support 122.3 and 120.6 & Major resistance 126.2 and 128.4

Nickel Sept:
Market witness awaited correction after a sharp rally, traders can use dips for buying opportunity, Major support 1165, 1135 Major resistance 1205 and 1224

Bullion

Gold Oct; Market have turned bullish, traders can buy on small dips for intra day. Major support 8985 and 8965, Major resistance 9056, 9085 and 9105

Silver Dec: Market is looking very bullish on charts, Supported by fundamentals, traders can create long positions on small dips, Major support 17165, 17050. Major resistance 17221, 17365 and 17500

Crude Oil

Crude Oil Update; The US Energy Information Administration will release its energy inventory data tomorrow, one day later than usual on account of the Labor Day holiday in the US Monday.


Inventory Expectation; Analysts expect the data will likely show US crude stocks fell again last week - making for the seventh fall in the last eight weeks - while gasoline stocks also fell.

LME Inventory Data

Metal Tonnes in Storage Change from previous day Aluminum 854000 +7175 Copper 137000 -2625 Nickel 25086 +282 Lead 24750 -550 ZINC 68250 +2175


Impact; Data is negative for Aluminum, Zinc and Nickel, While Positive for Copper, and Lead

LME Inventory Data

LME Metal Tonnes in Storage Change from
previous day :
Aluminum 839625 +12900
Copper 139100 -325
Nickel 24324 +198
Lead 25200 -175
Zinc 65375 +375

Inventory impact; Data is Negative for Aluminum, Nickel and Zinc, While Positive for Copper and Lead

Free: Seasonal Outlook Report on Potato

Dear All

We have released our Seasonal Outlook Report on Potato for Sept 03, 2007.Those are interested can send their request at research@aurumcommodities.com

Regards,

Kamlesh Jogi
Mob; 09382955522

Important US Data Next Week

Important US Data Next Week
Week of September 03 - September 07
Date	IST	Release	For	Consensus	Prior
4-Sep	19:30	Construction Spending	Jul	-0.10%	-0.30%
4-Sep	19:30	ISM Index	Aug	53	53.8
4-Sep	2:30	Auto Sales	Aug	5.0M	4.9M
4-Sep	2:30	Truck Sales	Aug	7.0M	6.7M
5-Sep	19:30	Pending Home Sales	Jul		5.00%
5-Sep	20:00	Crude Inventories	31-Aug	NA	-3486K
5-Sep	23:30	Fed's Beige Book
6-Sep	18:00	Initial Claims	1-Sep	NA	334K
6-Sep	18:00	Productivity-Rev.	Q2	2.30%	1.80%
6-Sep	19:30	ISM Services	Aug	54.5	55.8
7-Sep	18:00	Nonfarm Payrolls	Aug	120K	92K
7-Sep	18:00	Unemployment Rate	Aug	4.60%	4.60%
7-Sep	18:00	Hourly Earnings	Aug	0.30%	0.30%
7-Sep	18:00	Average Workweek	Aug	33.8	33.8
7-Sep	19:30	Wholesale Inventories	Jul	0.50%	0.50%