Commodities - Technical Analysis

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Thursday, July 23, 2009

Copper -Book profit in buy call at 239 CMP 269.5

Trader can book profit in range of 269-271 and wait for another buying opportunity at 254-252 range. wait for next report.


regards

Kamlesh Jogi



Report on 30 June 2009

http://commoditytalkonline.blogspot.com/2009/06/copper-short-term-outlook.html

Copper - Short Term outlook
MCX Copper Aug contract have shown lot of volatility while trading in range of 213 -257 in short duration of 1.5 month.

Technically opportunity can be seen for buying on dips where market have given 61.8% retracement from high of 257 to low of 213.Another opportunity arise if market breaks 229.9 levels where 61.8% retracement holds.



In weekly chart we can see a strong bullish rally where strong support comes around 229 ranges and resistance comes around 280 ranges. Weekly 13 days RSI still suggest a buying potential at 59.32 levels while MACD is holding in positive territory with increase in bullishness. Both indicators suggest a positional buying level on dips. Can be seen from chart given below:



Recommendation:


Positional - MCX Copper August: Buy at 242-238 range Target 280 & 304 SL 229

Or Sell below 229 Target 202 & 180 SL 244

Monday, July 6, 2009

Commodity Transation Tax has been removed . Details are awaited.

Commodity Transation Tax has been removed . Details are awaited.

Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Copper - Short Term outlook

MCX Copper Aug contract have shown lot of volatility while trading in range of 213 -257 in short duration of 1.5 month.

Technically opportunity can be seen for buying on dips where market have given 61.8% retracement from high of 257 to low of 213.Another opportunity arise if market breaks 229.9 levels where 61.8% retracement holds.



In weekly chart we can see a strong bullish rally where strong support comes around 229 ranges and resistance comes around 280 ranges. Weekly 13 days RSI still suggest a buying potential at 59.32 levels while MACD is holding in positive territory with increase in bullishness. Both indicators suggest a positional buying level on dips. Can be seen from chart given below:



Recommendation:


Positional - MCX Copper August: Buy at 242-238 range Target 280 & 304 SL 229

Or Sell below 229 Target 202 & 180 SL 244

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Spot Gold -technical analysis

Spot Gold - Technical Analysis



Gold

Support: 916.00, 912.00, 907.00, 902.00, 896.00

Resistance: 925.00, 927.00, 930.00, 935.00, 940.00

Trend : Buy on DIPS. Positive.

Silver

Support: 13.76, 13.66, 13.55, 13.43, 13.35

Resistance: 13.88, 13.96, 14.08, 14.25, 14.42

Trend : Buy on DIPS. Positive

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Crude Oil given triangel brekout, may correct till 2356


Crude Oil given triangel brekout, may correct till 2356

Technically Copper may correct till 209



Technically MCX Copper April may correct till 209

Spot Gold forming double bottom in daily chart!


Spot Gold forming double bottom in daily chart.

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Gold Price Should Benefit From China's Call For a New Reserve Currency

Gold Price Should Benefit From China's Call For a New Reserve Currency

Gold price continues to trade around 920 with a soft tone in European morning. Investors have shifted the focus from the Fed's inflationary asset buying program announced last week to the Treasury's PPIP.

The G20 will be meeting next week. Earlier this week, the Chinese Government called for creating a new currency in replacement of the USD as a reserve currency. We believe the topic will be one of the main focuses in the summit and if the proposal gains support, gold will be an immediate beneficiary.


The Chinese central bank (PBOC) urged the IMF to be responsible for creating a 'super-sovereign reserve currency', a new currency which is free from inherent risks of credit-based currency and facilitates global liquidity. China, which possesses the world's largest reserve in USD ($740B), once again showed explicit concerns on USD.

A central bank advisor said today that China has suffered badly from the dollar's role as a global standard. 2 weeks ago, Premier Wen Jiabao asked the US to 'guarantee the safety of China's asset.

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Basemetals - Latest fundamentals update

News Copper - The global copper market was in a 329,000 metric tons surplus in 2008, data from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics showed Wednesday. That compares with a deficit of 119,000 tons in 2007, WBMS said. Global consumption in January to December 2008 was 18.16 million tons, fractionally higher than the same period of the previous year.
Mine production for the year was at 15.53 million tons, 0.7% lower than in January to December 2007 period, WBMS said. Meanwhile, refined copper production rose by 2.8% on the year to 18.48 million tons in 2008.


News Zinc : The global refined zinc market was in a surplus of 185,000 metric tons in 2008, the World Bureau of Metals Statistics said Wednesday. World refined zinc output rose 169,000 tons in 2008 to 10.531 million tons,the WBMS said. World refined zinc demand increased by 28,000 tons to 10.346 million tons. World zinc mine production was 8.7% higher at 12.07 million tons.

News Lead : The global lead market was in a nearly 3,000 metric ton surplus in 2008, data from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics showed Wednesday. That compares with a 203,000 ton deficit in 2007, the WBMS said. Lead mine production totaled 3.884 million tons in 2008, with Chinese output dominating the global supply. Refined production from both primary and secondary sources was up 6.1% in 2008 on the year, WBMS said. Global demand was 3.5% higher in 2008 on the year to total 8.668 million tons.


News Nickel : The global refined nickel market was in a 54,100 metric ton surplus in 2008, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics said Wednesday. World refined nickel production fell 5.9% to 1.369 million tons, the WBMS said World refined nickel demand declined 2.8% to 1.315 million tons. World nickel mine output increased by 1.3% to 1.5379 million tons.

Friday, March 13, 2009

LME copper is leading the base metal complex

LME copper is leading the base metal complex up, trading higher due to a combination of technical indicators and some fresh positions being added, copper remains in a range between $3,300 (MCX Rs.170/ Kg) a metric ton to $3,800/ton (MCX Rs. 195/Kg).







Given copper held above support at $3,500/ (MCX Rs. 180 /Kg)ton it could post further gains. if copper trades above $3,800/ton it could then target $4,400/(MCX Rs. 226/ Kg)ton. (INR = 51.60)

Monday, February 23, 2009

Reasons for gold's recent rally:

Reasons for gold's recent rally:



1. Safe-haven. Since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, systematic risks of financial systems have emerged. Although Governments all over the world have pledged numerous bailout plans and nationalizations of financial institutions, investors probably lost confidence in it. Rather than putting money in equities, fixed income products or even in savings deposit account, they preferred some hard assets which offered store of values. Demand for gold coins evidenced investors' seek for safe haven as gold coins are portable but trading as a premium to gold bars. Normally, gold coins trade at a 5% premium but since 2H08, some 10% premiums were being paid. In the US and the Western European, demand increased significantly.




2. Long-term Inflation. The cost of bailouts, nationalizations and decline in tax revenue increased the risk of long-term inflation. Although recent inflation reports were weaker than expected and many analysts talked about deflation, investors have started to worry about inflation in the long run. US yields indicated that inflation expectations have increased over the past few months. The spread between 10-year T-notes and TIPS rose to 1.15%, compared with -0.08% in November and 6-month average of 0.95%.

3. Increase in default in sovereign debts. In the past, economists and investors seldom paid much attention to sovereign credit-default swaps. However, after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, credit markets started to tighten. Capital injections to large financial institutions have put sovereign debts at risk. Investors now use CDS spread to predict movements of currency pairs. For instance, previous decline in British pound was accompanied with rapid rise in CDS of Britain sovereign debt. The Japanese yen fell sharply last week, the CDS of its sovereign debt also rose markedly as Japan recorded a decline of 12.7% yoy in 4Q08 GDP.

Thursday, February 19, 2009

Spot Gold Technicals

Spot Gold - If breaks 989 can go as high as 1036 -1085 levels, If not tehn possibility of a heavy correction.

refer given chart below :(Source -MKumar )

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Spot Gold highest since July

Spot gold is trading at its highest since July last year amid further banking concerns that sparked investors to swap euro for gold. East European banks were at risk of default, considering the rapid economic decline in that region.

Momentum is going to push gold prices higher with financial market uncertainty driving investors to the precious metal, bearish sentiment in the market over equities, financial market uncertainty "back in play" was likely to mean more buying into gold.

Gold got an additional boost higher after Russia's central bank confirmed it had been buying gold, with gold's share in its reserves growing by about $1 billion to $15.5 billion during January, This combination has triggered another move in gold, taking the metal to the highs for the year and seems set to make further gains.




Technically gold is expected to trade higher after it traded above $936.3/oz last week, the next significant target higher is at $989.6/oz and then $1,000/oz and then $1,033.9/oz, Options were bought in Asia for gold at $1,000/oz and $1,050/oz, which indicates the momentum and expectation is for gold to move higher.

Thursday, February 5, 2009

MCX Copper : If close above 166, may trade higher till 180

MCX Copper may create high till 180, if close above 166 today.

refer chart given below.



regards ,


Kamlesh Jogi


Friday, January 30, 2009

Spot Gold Daily Technical Outlook

Spot Gold Daily Technical Outlook



Gold's rally resumes after drawing support and reaches as high as 926.6 so far today. At this point, further rise is still expected as long as 874.20 support holds. Next target will be key near term resistance at 936.3. Decisive break there will confirm the medium term bullish case and bring stronger rise to 1000 psychological resistance again. Though, failure below 936.3 and a break of 874.20 support will be the first alert that Gold has topped out and will turn short term outlook neutral first.

MCX Gold may take correction if doesnt break 14500

Trading at major resistance at 14450-14500, may take correction till 13200,
If breaks 14500 may create new high till 14700





Regards ,

Kamlesh Jogi

Mail : kamleshjogi@gmail.com

Thursday, January 29, 2009

BSE INDEX - Technicals

Bse Index is having a short term uptrend and market will confirm more bullish trend if close above 9340, next major resistance is seen at 9707, 10103 & 10344. Major support can be seen at 9052, 8749 and 8461.



Regards ,

Kamlesh Jogi

Mail - kamleshjogi@gmail.com

MCX CRUDE OIL FEB : BUY ON DIPS WITH STOP AT 1943, TARGET 2183



MCX CRUDE OIL FEB : BUY ON DIPS WITH STOP AT 1943, TARGET 2183

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Copper under pressure

LME copper under pressure from a strengthening dollar, rising inventories and falling crude oil prices, new short positions may be taken with a downside target of $3,000/ton, worries about banking industry are also raising risk aversion, which is negative for commodities. While the EUR/USD may not break through the December lows, it's likely to slide in the short-term, keeping pressure on commodities.

LME 3-month copper at $3,315/ton, down $110.The 20- and 30-day moving averages are in the mid- to high-$3,100s, making them the next immediate support levels.


MCX Copper Daily Chart -



MCX Copper is trading on major support at 157 and if breaks can test next level of 144 & 138. Short term resistance can be seen at 169.55, if sustains above can show some bullishness till next major resistance at 174.80

Friday, January 2, 2009

Gold will play major role in 2009

Gold will play major role in 2009

Gold will likely trade in a wide range during 2009, possibly from the $600s to above $1,000 an ounce, but political and economic circumstances will determine whether the metal will continue to outpace other commodities and equities.

Gold is often seen as a haven during times of political and financial uncertainty, and that safe-haven status helped the metal maintain its value even as other assets tanked this year.

Next year, the metal's range is likely to be dictated by in part by inflation expectations and currency movements.

In 2008, front month gold in New York gained roughly 5%, while nearby crude and copper lost more than half their value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lopped off more than 30%. After dropping like a stone on waning auto demand, platinum futures earlier this month settled below the yellow metal for the first time since the 1990s.


Gold may touch $630 on the low side and $980 on the high side in 2009, with an
average price near $810, The metal's trading range will likely stay as wide as this year's $350, with volatility remaining "an integral part of daily, weekly and monthly swings.

Wild cards include severe deflation or "catastrophic geopolitical developments," which could widen that range by $100 on either side, Standard Chartered Bank is more bullish, expecting gold to average $985 in 2009, with a retest of $1,000 by the end of the second quarter.

Gold has outperformed the commodity complex through the financial-sector crisis, and we believe it will continue to perform well through the economic downturn, given constrained supply and continued, if volatile, investment demand, the bank said in a research report.

The metal has risen since November on support from U.S. dollar weakness and, this week, tensions in the Middle East, Standard Chartered said. "In the context of a weakening U.S. dollar we believe fresh investment flows will outweigh withdrawal of previous safe haven flows" as market deleveraging ends and risk appetite increases, Standard Chartered said.

However, Sterling Smith, vice president with FuturesOne, sees equities outperforming gold on balance next year.

The bears are winning right now" in gold, he said, forecasting an average gold price of $720. The metal may try to make an early test to around $955, but a failure to hold that level "could start a serious liquidation that could give us a low down to the $600 area.

Inflation fears cropping up later in 2009 perhaps tied to some sort of currency issue could push gold back into the $820 area toward 2009's end, Inflationary pressures to the upside in the second half of 2009 could have other commodities bottoming and then playing catch up with gold, even though the metal may continue rising.

But during the first half of the year, Gross sees gold continuing to outperform equities and other commodities as the demand side pressures physical resources and gold's safe-haven play continues.

Historical 2008 : US Economy at it worst

Historical 2008 : US Economy at it worst


This was the worst year for equities and many other investments since the depths of the Great Depression. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 34% in 2008, its biggest loss since 1931. The biggest loser on the blue-chip index for the year was General Motors Corp. (GM), which fell more than 87% to $3.20 and needed an emergency loan from the government just to make it to 2009.

The next biggest loser was Citigroup (C), one of the world's biggest banks by assets that also required a government rescue late in the year. Citi fell about 77% to $6.71, weighed down by the same load that sunk Lehman Brothers Holdings and effectively brought down Bear Stearns: billions of dollars of bonds linked to mortgages.

The broader Standard & Poor's 500 ended the year down 38%, also the largest loss since 1931, as the financial crisis spilled into the broader economy. The technology-oriented Nasdaq Composite shed 40.5%, the worst performance in a history dating back to 1971, edging out the 39% loss in 2000, when the tech bubble burst.

Bad loans and a string of banking failures resulted in the financial sector being the weakest of the S&P 500, losing 58% in 2008.

That was the day the government allowed Lehman Brothers Holdings to fail. The bankruptcy sent shock waves through the financial system, causing the credit crunch to become a full-fledged dollar drought. Corporations could not borrow the money they needed to make payrolls or invest in projects. Ultimately, consumers slowed spending over job and housing worries.

The combination of the credit crunch and consumer-spending slowdown sent companies as diverse as chicken processor Pilgrim's Pride (PGPDQ) and electronics chain Circuit City (CCTYQ) to bankruptcy court.

Defaults rose, and yields in the bond market reached record levels. In early December, risk premiums that investors charge on risky corporate bonds, or junk bonds, topped 20 percentage points over benchmark U.S. Treasury rates, according to Merrill Lynch's closely watched High Yield Master II Index. The number implied a default rate of around 22% over the next year, according to market watchers, higher than the realized record of 15.4% in 1933, the depths of the Great Depression.

At the start of 2008, the two-year yield was a bit below 3%. It dropped to a historic low of 0.569% in December and closed out the year around 0.75%. Treasurys earned 14.59% year to date as of Tuesday, according to Barclays Capital U.S. Treasuries Index. This year represents Treasurys' best year since 1995, as measured by the index.

In another sign of risk aversion, the commodities bubble burst this year. Inflation expectations had drawn speculators in hedge funds and elsewhere to commodities futures and stocks, sending oil to a peak of $147 a barrel. Fears that a worldwide recession would reach the shores of even fast-growing nations like China caused oil to turn around. The flight of the hedge funds, forced by the financial crisis to sell investments they had made on borrowed money, exacerbated the crash for oil and other commodities.

The materials sector was the second weakest in the S&P 500, losing about 48%, while energy stocks declined 37%. None of the 10 sectors in the S&P 500 recorded gains on the year. The one that fell the least was consumer staples, off roughly 18%. Investors found some consolation in stocks that specialize in serving consumers when money is tight. McDonald's Corp. (MCD) added 45 cents, or 0.7%, to $62.19, and gained 5.6% on the year; Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) added $1.01, or 1.8%, to $56.06, up 18% for 2008. Family Dollar Stores Inc. (FDO) rose 56 cents, or 2.2%, to $26.07, and rose 36% this year.

Some of those who were bears going into 2008 remain bears for 2009. One was not convinced that government bailouts alone can save an economy, or a market.

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