Commodities - Technical Analysis

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Saturday, June 28, 2008

Weekly Spot Gold Technical Outlook : Kamlesh Jogi

Sudden rise in Crude Oil prices and weaker dollar is supporting this bullishness in Spot Gold. Spot gold registered weekly high near 931.90 which is +$65.20 from last weeks low. Low registered this week is 874.10. Spot gold finished its weekly bullish move near 929.80, bit higher then 9 days moving average of 903.11



Technically Gold have turned bullish on the break of short-term resistance of 909 which will act as a initial support now. Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed above short term and medium term EMA, which supports bulls. MACD is heading up wards in positive region, showing increase in bullish momentum.

The 13-day RSI over 70 indicates the market is approaching overbought levels. It is a mildly bearish indicator. Current 13 Days RSI is 63.008, which still supporting bulls.

Next support below initial support of 909 is seen at 895 and 873 while long term support still there in range of 857-848 ranges.

As market have broken previous resistance of 909 and 917, Next major resistance is seen near 935, if breaks and sustains above it will turn into next level of 954 and 977. Strong resistance is seen near 977.

Regrds,

Kamlesh Jogi

Commodity research Analyst

Thursday, June 26, 2008

Crude Oil Inventory - Impact and Analysis

Crude supplies climbed by 800,000 barrels to 301.8 million for the week ended June 20, according to the Energy Department Wednesday. They had fallen a total of nearly 25 million in the last five weeks. Motor gasoline supplies fell 100,000 barrels to 208.8 million barrels.
Distillate stocks were up 2.8 million barrels at 119.4 million barrels. Refinery utilization was at 88.6% compared with 89.3% of capacity a week earlier. Following the news, August crude was last down $2 at $135 a barrel in New York.


Impact & Analysis

Market already registered a fall of more then $3 per barrel in NYMEX Crude Oil futures; a fresh buying can emerge as speculative buyers are still there in market. Technically these levels are good for buying.



Regards,

Kamlesh Jogi

Commodity Analyst

Fed keep interest rate unchanged; impact and analysis

The Federal Reserve closed the door on a series of rapid rate hikes but opened the window a crack for rate hikes down the road.

In a statement released after the Fed held its target for short-term interest rates steady at 2%, the central bank sharpened its focus on inflation, saying that the risks posed to the economy by upward pressure on prices have increased.
The Fed statement generally matches the expectations of most Fed watchers, who had predicted the central bank would sharpen its inflation rhetoric without explicitly saying when rates would rise


Impact:

Gold futures expected to move higher after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady but raised concerns over inflation.

Regards,

Kamlesh Jogi

Commodity Analyst

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

India's rupee gained the most in two weeks

India's rupee gained the most in more than two weeks after the central bank announced the biggest interest-rate increase since 2000 to curb inflation. Indian rupee last seen at 42.73 with net gain of 35 Pips. The rupee may extend today's advance as investors regain confidence in India's ability to tackle the fastest price growth in 13 years.



India's rupee gained the most in more than two weeks after the central bank announced the biggest interest-rate increase since 2000 to curb inflation. Indian rupee last seen at 42.73 with net gain of 35 Pips. The rupee may extend today's advance as investors regain confidence in India's ability to tackle the fastest price growth in 13 years.

The currency rose from near a 14-month low after the RBI increased the repurchase rate by 0.5 percentage point late yesterday to 8.5 percent and told banks to increase the proportion of deposits kept aside as reserve, the so-called cash-reserve ratio, by a similar margin to 8.75 percent.

There seems to be a sense of emergency in the monetary action, and it should very much be there. This is reasonably positive for the rupee. The central bank announced monetary tightening measures for the second time in two weeks after the inflation rate in Asia's third-largest economy almost tripled this year to touch 11.05 percent in the first week of this month. The Reserve Bank's key repurchase rate is at the highest since 2002.

The rupee's gains were capped by speculation the nation's decision to raise interest rates will fail to reverse losses in the currency this year as a rising oil import bill widens the current-account deficit.

Regards,

Kamlesh Jogi

Commodities Research Analyst.

Monday, June 23, 2008

Weekly Spot Gold Technical Analysis:

International Spot Gold is trading a tight range of 857 -930 from last 15 days, making volatile movement. Any breakout is required to confirm further trend as Crude Oil and US Dollar are key driving factors.


Weekly Spot Gold Technical Analysis:

The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed above short term and medium term EMA, which supports bulls. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum. The 13-day RSI near 54 and increasing upside indicating bullishness in market, if goes above 70 will make it over bought.

Market is having major resistance at 909 and on the break of it will turn more bullish toward 917 and 928. Strong resistance is there at 928 for long term trend and if break it can go further up till 973.

Initial Support can be seen at 895 on break of it will turn more bearish towards 874.60 and 857. Strong support can be seen at 857 for long term and if break it can fall further to 831 and 785.

Regards,

Kamlesh Jogi
Commodities Research Analyst.

Friday, June 20, 2008

Nigerian oil production has fallen

Nigerian oil production has now fallen to 1.8 million barrels a day following recent attacks on oil facilities by militants, local daily the Guardian reports Friday, citing the finance minister.

The Guardian quoted Remi Babalola, minister of state for finance, as saying in Abuja Thursday that with a forced oil cut through the destruction of pipelines by militants, Nigeria's production capacity has fallen to 1.8 million barrels a day from 2.4 million barrels a day.

Regards ,

Kamlesh Jogi

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

WBMS Repoort : Global aluminum market was in a 458,000 metric ton surplus

The global aluminum market was in a 458,000 metric ton surplus in the first four months of 2008, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics said Wednesday.

This compares with a 29,000 ton surplus in the same period last year.

Demand for primary aluminum was 12.55 million tons, 464,000 tons more than the equivalent total for January to April 2007.

Production rose 894,000 tons to 13.01 million tons during the same period, the WBMS said.

Impact ; This reprot is slightly negative for Aluminium prices.

Regards,

Kamlesh Jogi

WBMS Report - World copper market was in a deficit of 42,000

The world copper market was in a deficit of 42,000 metric tons during the first four months of 2008, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics said Wednesday.

This compares with a deficit of 135,800 tons for the same period of 2007.

Copper mine production for the first four months of the year was 4.93 million tons, 3.6% lower than in January to April 2007. Refined production rose 1.7% to 5.996 million tons.

Consumption in January to April was 6.04 million tons, virtually unchanged from the same period of the previous year.

Impact ; This is slightly positive for Copper prices.

regards ,

Kamlesh Jogi

MCX Gold range boung, need a clear breakout to confirm trend.- Kamlesh Jogi

MCX Gold August bounded in tight range of 12250-12334 follwing tight range in currecny segment.

International Spot gold currently trading at $886, mainly trading in range of 880.70 -888, need to break out of major support or resistnace to confirm fresh direction.

Technical Commentary :

Technical are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 869 levels. If broken can see further fall to 854 and 841 , Pivot level is seen at 882,If market holds above 897 further rally can be seen towards 910 and 927

Currency Factor:
Markets are bounded in tight range today as consolidation continues. Main focus in the European session is BoE meeting minutes which is expected to show a 1-8 vote to keep rates unchanged earlier this month.

Nevertheless, the impact on the markets could be mild even in case of surprises as the minutes itself is not really expected to deliver much newer information than Governor's King's open letter to Chancellor Darling released yesterday.

Other data to be released today included Swiss ZEW which is expected to drop further to -60.8 in Jun. UK CBI industrial trend is expected to drop further to -12 in Apr. Canadian leading indicators will be released in the US session and is expected to climb 0.1% in May.

Regards ,

Kamlesh Jogi

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Lead stockpiles at LME posted the biggest daily gain in eight months.

MCX Lead June dropped to a low of 76.50 on Tuesday afternoon, registered days high near 78.30. Move was supported by LME inventory data. Before it Lead June registered contract low near 75.40 on Monday.

Lead stockpiles monitored by the London Metal Exchange posted the biggest daily gain in eight months.

Inventories tracked by the exchange jumped 11,550 metric tons, or 14 percent, to 94,875 tons, according to LME data. That’s the biggest increase since Oct. 17.

Technical Outlook:

Lead technically is neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 75.5 levels. If broken can see further fall to 73.9 and 72.4, If market holds above 77.0 further rally can be seen towards 78.6 and 80.1

Regards

Kamlesh Jogi

Monday, June 16, 2008

MCX Copper sluggish on china import and production news

MCX Copper June trading in tight range as china import increased by 13.7% from a year earlier while china production in May rose by 18% on year. Both news are contradiction to trend.

China imported 420,000 metric tons of copper concentrate in May, up 13.7% from a year earlier, according to preliminary data issued by the General Administration of Customs Monday. The country imported a total of 2.29 million tons of copper concentrate in the first five months, up 21.6% on year, it added.

Impact : Data is supportive for copper prices.

China's copper output in May rose 18% on year to 324,000 metric tons, the National Bureau of Statistics said Monday. Total output in the January-May period rose 19% to 1.49 million tons, it said.

Impact : Data is weak for Copper prcies.

Technical Outlook :

Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expceted to remian positive above 342.5 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 345.9 and 350.0 , If market sustains below 338.4 can see a further fall towards 335.1 and 331.0

Recommendation ; Buy on dips of 338 Target 342 and 347 Stop loss at 334.20

Saturday, June 14, 2008

MCX Copper futures bounced on Friday

MCX Copper futures bounced on Friday as traders covered short positions a day after the metal hit its lowest levels in more than two months, MCX Copper June closed nwear 339.60 with gain of Rs. 4.60 per kg after registering days low near 334.30, while days high was registered near 341.80. Comex most-active July copper contract rose 5.10 cents to settle at $3.5890 per pound.

Support came from increasing consumer prices, the U.S. consumer-price index increased 0.6% in May, the Labor Department said Friday. Wall Street has expected an increase of about 0.5%.

Inventories of copper stored in London Metal Exchange warehouses rose 550 metric tons Friday, leaving them at 121,175. The most recent Comex inventory data, released late Thursday afternoon, were steady at 11,040 short tons.

Regards ,

Kamlesh Jogi

MCX Crude Oil July trades volatile on firday

MCX Crude Oil July traded volatile on Friday following NYMEX movement, closed with some losses from previous day. Registered days high near 5888 and closed near 5796 with loss of Rs. 21 per barrel after registering days low near 5749.

Saudi Arabia is considering increasing its oil production to 10 million barrels a day from 9.45 million, the Middle East Economic Survey reported Friday, a week before a high-profile meeting between crude producers and consumers in Jeddah.

If realized, the output boost would lend credibility to the meeting, set for June 22, to discuss what measures can be taken to usher calm back into global oil markets. Oil prices recently have exhibited unprecedented volatility, with the front-month contract rising by almost $11 on June 6.

Regards,

Kamlesh Jogi

MCX Gold Closes with gains

MCX Gold futures spent much of Friday slightly lower, but bounced back to end in mildly positive territory on support from inflationary indications even as a higher dollar and lower oil capped buoyancy.

MCX Gold August closed near 12133 with gain of 25 from previous closing, market registered days low near 11983 and days high near 12159.

But the downside was also limited because many participants didn't want to go short over the weekend. Participants also booked some profits ahead of the weekend.

Gold futures finished modestly higher Friday, helped by inflationary indications even as a higher dollar and lower oil capped its buoyancy.

Support came from increasing consumer prices ,the U.S. consumer-price index increased 0.6% in May, the Labor Department said Friday. Wall Street has expected an increase of about 0.5%.

Regards,

Kamlesh Jogi

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