Crude Oil
Bullish factors for crude oil prices yesterday included
(1) the decline in the dollar index to a 1-week low,
(2) comments from Libya's top oil official that OPEC should make "substantial" output cuts when it meets next week,
(3) the rally in global equity markets, and
(4) speculation that President-elect Obama's pledge to create the biggest US public works program in 50 years will increase energy demand.
The main bearish factor for crude oil prices yesterday was continued concern about the weakening global economy, which should curtail overall crude oil demand.
US Dollar
Bearish factors for the dollar yesterday included
(1) reduced flight-to-safety demand into the dollar as global equity markets rallied, and
(2) President-elect Obama's talk of more fiscal stimulus and his pledge for a mammoth US infrasructure spending plan, which could ease the global credit crisis and thus reduce demand for dollars.
Bullish factors for the dollar yesterday included
(1) the prediction by Deutsche Bank AG that the ECB will cut its benchmark lending rate to 0.75% by the middle of next year as the European economic situation continues to deteriorate,
(2) the larger-than-expected decline of -3.8% y/y in Oct German industrial production, which was the largest y/y decline in 6-1/2 ye ars, and
(3) the larger-than-expected fall in the Dec Euro-Zone Sentix investor confidence to its lowest level since the data series began in July 2002.
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Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Monday, December 1, 2008
Crude Oil - Important fundamentlas factors
Bearish factors include OPEC's decision over the weekend to wait until its December 17 meeting to decide whether to cut production another notch. OPEC called on non-OPEC producers such as Russia, Norway and Mexico to help with a production cut and to underpin crude oil prices.
Jan crude oil prices last Friday closed -1 cent at $54.43 and Jan gasoline prices closed +0.88 cents at 120.96 cents.
Bullish factors last week included
(1) the sharp rally in global stocks, which reduced pessimism about the global economy,
(2) the likelihood for an eventual OPEC production cut, and
(3) some short-covering after crude oil prices were able to stabilize for a week.
Bearish factors included
(1) OPEC's dithering over a production cut,
(2) OPEC President Khelil's comment that some OPEC countries can't find buyers for all their oil, and
(3) continued exp ectations for weak global economic growth and fuel demand.
Jan crude oil prices last Friday closed -1 cent at $54.43 and Jan gasoline prices closed +0.88 cents at 120.96 cents.
Bullish factors last week included
(1) the sharp rally in global stocks, which reduced pessimism about the global economy,
(2) the likelihood for an eventual OPEC production cut, and
(3) some short-covering after crude oil prices were able to stabilize for a week.
Bearish factors included
(1) OPEC's dithering over a production cut,
(2) OPEC President Khelil's comment that some OPEC countries can't find buyers for all their oil, and
(3) continued exp ectations for weak global economic growth and fuel demand.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
US Consumer spending fell, durable orders down
Consumer spending fell 1% in October, the largest decline since September 2001, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. The result matched analysts' expectations. Real consumer spending fell 0.5%. Personal income rose 0.3% in October after a 0.1% gain in September. Analysts were looking for a 0.1% income gain for October. Real disposable income rose 1% in October. As expected by analysts, the core personal consumption expenditure price index was unchanged in October. This index gained 0.2% in September, and is up 2.1% in the past year.
Orders for U.S.-made durable goods fell 6.2% in October, the largest decline in two years, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday, as orders for transportation goods fell 11.1%. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected an overall decline of 2.5%. Excluding transportation, orders fell 4.4%. Orders for core capital equipment - the kind of investments businesses make to expand or update their productive capacity - fell 4% in October, after a 3.3% decline in September. October shipments fell 2.4% after a 0.2% dip in September. Excluding transportation, shipments fell 1.7% in October after a 0.9% decline in September. New orders for September were revised to a decline of 0.2%, compared with the prior estimate of a 0.9% gain
Orders for U.S.-made durable goods fell 6.2% in October, the largest decline in two years, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday, as orders for transportation goods fell 11.1%. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected an overall decline of 2.5%. Excluding transportation, orders fell 4.4%. Orders for core capital equipment - the kind of investments businesses make to expand or update their productive capacity - fell 4% in October, after a 3.3% decline in September. October shipments fell 2.4% after a 0.2% dip in September. Excluding transportation, shipments fell 1.7% in October after a 0.9% decline in September. New orders for September were revised to a decline of 0.2%, compared with the prior estimate of a 0.9% gain
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
U.S. Q3 GDP revised down to - 0.5%
The U.S. economy contracted at a 0.5% annual rate in the third quarter, slower than the negative 0.3% estimated a month ago, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday.
The revisions to real gross domestic product were largely due to weaker consumer spending. Economists were predicting a revision to about negative 0.6%.
The core personal consumption expenditure price index rose 2.6%, compared with the initial estimate of a 2.9% gain.
The revisions to real gross domestic product were largely due to weaker consumer spending. Economists were predicting a revision to about negative 0.6%.
The core personal consumption expenditure price index rose 2.6%, compared with the initial estimate of a 2.9% gain.
Fundamentlas for Crude Oil
Bullish factors for crude oil prices yesterday included
(1) the drop in the dollar index to a 1-1/2 week low,
(2) the sharp rally in US and European stock markets,
(3) the announcement by the Chinese of their second stimulus package in the last two weeks, potentially increasing energy demand, and
(4) comments from oil ministers from Iran and Venezuela that OPEC must cut production again after last month's cut failed to buoy prices.
Bearish factors for crude oil prices yesterday included continuing weak global economic data with
(1) the weaker-than-expected US existing home sales for Oct, and
(2) the larger-than-expected fall in the Nov German IFO business sentiment to a 15-3/4 year low .
(1) the drop in the dollar index to a 1-1/2 week low,
(2) the sharp rally in US and European stock markets,
(3) the announcement by the Chinese of their second stimulus package in the last two weeks, potentially increasing energy demand, and
(4) comments from oil ministers from Iran and Venezuela that OPEC must cut production again after last month's cut failed to buoy prices.
Bearish factors for crude oil prices yesterday included continuing weak global economic data with
(1) the weaker-than-expected US existing home sales for Oct, and
(2) the larger-than-expected fall in the Nov German IFO business sentiment to a 15-3/4 year low .
Thursday, October 30, 2008
MCX Copper - Technical Outlook
MCX Copper traded volatile during last 6 month where market has registered high of 387.30 and low of 188.50. Market was mainly influenced by a slow down in US Markets and decrease in China demand. While continuous increase in LME inventory also supported the move.
Technically speaking market is still under pressure unless a clear break out of 27 days EMA of 242.27, a bullish trend will be back only if market able to break 100days EMA of 291.60., RSI suggests in-decision territory as current 13 days RSI is 42.20.
MCX Copper is having major support at 211, 199.68, 183.36, while short term resistance can be seen at 235.73, 252.47, and 263.64.
Trade Recommendation –
MCX Copper Nov: Short term traders can buy on dips around 220 with stop loss of 211 Target 235 & 246
Traders looking for long term trades can wait till bounce of 240-246 range can sell there with stop loss of 265 for target of 203 & 184
Regards ,
Kamlesh Jogi
Commodities Research Analyst.
Technically speaking market is still under pressure unless a clear break out of 27 days EMA of 242.27, a bullish trend will be back only if market able to break 100days EMA of 291.60., RSI suggests in-decision territory as current 13 days RSI is 42.20.
MCX Copper is having major support at 211, 199.68, 183.36, while short term resistance can be seen at 235.73, 252.47, and 263.64.
Trade Recommendation –
MCX Copper Nov: Short term traders can buy on dips around 220 with stop loss of 211 Target 235 & 246
Traders looking for long term trades can wait till bounce of 240-246 range can sell there with stop loss of 265 for target of 203 & 184
Regards ,
Kamlesh Jogi
Commodities Research Analyst.
Saturday, September 27, 2008
Fed may cut interest rate in oct metting, chances are 80%
Conditions within the US financial markets continued to dominate investor sentiment and currency trends for much of the week. The increasing mood of uncertainty contributed to choppy trading conditions and also made it difficult to secure a decisive trend.
Following the announcement late last week, the Treasury continued to push for congressional agreement over a US$700bn support package for the financial sector.
Political tensions increased later in the week with President Bush stark in his warnings over the severe negative impact if an agreement was not reached.
Money-market tensions remained extreme and global central banks aggressively provided liquidity to help ease these strains and allow markets to function.
Congressional leaders looked to be near a framework agreement on Thursday, but there were then fresh tensions as a group of Republicans looked to promote an alternative package amid acrimonious talks. There was no resolution by early on Friday.
Fed Chairman Bernanke was generally downbeat over the economic prospects and more pessimistic than in recent comments. He stated that growth would be likely to be substantially below potential over the second half of 2008. Market stresses could be a considerable drag while commercial real-estate loan conditions had tightened substantially. Bernanke also stated that recent inflation news had been slightly more favourable.
There were only limited US data releases over the first half of the week. The pace of releases then picked up and had a generally weak tone. Existing home sales dipped slightly to an annual rate of 4.91mn from 5.02mn the previous month while prices were lower. The latest national survey also recorded a further decline in house prices.
The was a sharp 4.5% decline in durable goods orders for August while initial jobless claims continued to increase to 493,000 in the latest week. Although there may have been distortions from hurricanes, the evidence suggested an underlying deterioration.
In view of the depressed data releases, markets moved to price in at least an 80% chance of an interest rate cut at the October FOMC meeting.
Author - Kamlesh Jogi (Commodities Research Analyst)
Mail : kamleshjogi@gmail.com
Following the announcement late last week, the Treasury continued to push for congressional agreement over a US$700bn support package for the financial sector.
Political tensions increased later in the week with President Bush stark in his warnings over the severe negative impact if an agreement was not reached.
Money-market tensions remained extreme and global central banks aggressively provided liquidity to help ease these strains and allow markets to function.
Congressional leaders looked to be near a framework agreement on Thursday, but there were then fresh tensions as a group of Republicans looked to promote an alternative package amid acrimonious talks. There was no resolution by early on Friday.
Fed Chairman Bernanke was generally downbeat over the economic prospects and more pessimistic than in recent comments. He stated that growth would be likely to be substantially below potential over the second half of 2008. Market stresses could be a considerable drag while commercial real-estate loan conditions had tightened substantially. Bernanke also stated that recent inflation news had been slightly more favourable.
There were only limited US data releases over the first half of the week. The pace of releases then picked up and had a generally weak tone. Existing home sales dipped slightly to an annual rate of 4.91mn from 5.02mn the previous month while prices were lower. The latest national survey also recorded a further decline in house prices.
The was a sharp 4.5% decline in durable goods orders for August while initial jobless claims continued to increase to 493,000 in the latest week. Although there may have been distortions from hurricanes, the evidence suggested an underlying deterioration.
In view of the depressed data releases, markets moved to price in at least an 80% chance of an interest rate cut at the October FOMC meeting.
Author - Kamlesh Jogi (Commodities Research Analyst)
Mail : kamleshjogi@gmail.com
International Spot Gold - Technical View
International Spot Gold – Technical View
International Spot Gold is trading in a vide range of $765 to $959 from last many weeks, where we have a large volatility and witnessed biggest single day movement.
Now market may see some consolidation where short term trades can be executed with tight stop loss as major support and resistance will play a critical role.
Spot Gold - Weekly Chart
Spot Gold weekly chart is showing major support in range of $857, $833 and $785. While major resistance can be noticed in range of $902, $926 and $959.
Technically speaking momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed above short term and medium term EMA, which supports bulls. MACD is heading upwards in positive region, showing increase in bullish momentum. The 13-day RSI over 70 indicates the market is approaching overbought levels. It is a mildly bearish indicator. Current Spot Gold RSI is 51.15; hence market may show more bullishness.
Recommendation: Trader can enter with long position in range of $860-$855, Stop loss –break below $833, Target $900 , $924 and $955
Author - Kamlesh Jogi (Commodities Research Analyst)
Mail : kamleshjogi@gmail.com
International Spot Gold is trading in a vide range of $765 to $959 from last many weeks, where we have a large volatility and witnessed biggest single day movement.
Now market may see some consolidation where short term trades can be executed with tight stop loss as major support and resistance will play a critical role.
Spot Gold - Weekly Chart
Spot Gold weekly chart is showing major support in range of $857, $833 and $785. While major resistance can be noticed in range of $902, $926 and $959.
Technically speaking momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed above short term and medium term EMA, which supports bulls. MACD is heading upwards in positive region, showing increase in bullish momentum. The 13-day RSI over 70 indicates the market is approaching overbought levels. It is a mildly bearish indicator. Current Spot Gold RSI is 51.15; hence market may show more bullishness.
Recommendation: Trader can enter with long position in range of $860-$855, Stop loss –break below $833, Target $900 , $924 and $955
Author - Kamlesh Jogi (Commodities Research Analyst)
Mail : kamleshjogi@gmail.com
Monday, August 11, 2008
Crude futures fell below $114 per barrel
Crude futures fell below $114 per barrel in New York Monday afternoon, with the September contract down $1.66 at $113.60. Prices haven't traded this low since early May. Oil had climbed as high as $116.90 on Globex with the military conflict between Georgia and Russia raising concerns over a disruption in energy supplies. But concern over contracting demand, the result of a slowing global economy, has motivated sellers.
MCX Crude oil dropped to a fresh low of 4745, and closed at 4765 with a net loss of Rs. 74 per barrel, intraday high registered at 4919.
MCX Crude oil dropped to a fresh low of 4745, and closed at 4765 with a net loss of Rs. 74 per barrel, intraday high registered at 4919.
Sunday, August 3, 2008
Spot Gold – Weekly Technical Outlook : August 4, 2008
Spot Gold – Weekly Technical Outlook : August 4, 2008
International spot gold have shown erratic movement in last 2 weeks, where market have registered two weeks high of $988, then registered low of $916, turning all indicator bearish.
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. We can Cleary see a bounce back momentum. Nearest retrenchment level can be seen near first resistance on $944.
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are increasing from oversold level, which is bearish and should support higher price.
The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA ($919.55), 27-day EMA ($925.55), 50-day EMA ($920.63),The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive. Market still looking supportive for long term as market remains above 100-day EMA ($909.95), and 200-day EMA ($874.95).
International Spot Gold Daily Chart:
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 900.00 levels. If broken can see further fall to $872.00 and $828.00 , If market holds above $944.00 further rally can be seen towards $972.00 and $1016.00
Recommendation:
As market have given a recent fall can show some correction upside till $925, trader can wait unless market break this level, if market again come down from this level and break $919 range; can sell with a stop loss of $948 for the target of $903, $876 and $860 .Short term bearish ness can be seen if Crude oil prices continue down trend and Dollar remains strong.
Regards and Thanks
Kamlesh Jogi
Commodities Research Analyst.
International spot gold have shown erratic movement in last 2 weeks, where market have registered two weeks high of $988, then registered low of $916, turning all indicator bearish.
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. We can Cleary see a bounce back momentum. Nearest retrenchment level can be seen near first resistance on $944.
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are increasing from oversold level, which is bearish and should support higher price.
The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA ($919.55), 27-day EMA ($925.55), 50-day EMA ($920.63),The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive. Market still looking supportive for long term as market remains above 100-day EMA ($909.95), and 200-day EMA ($874.95).
International Spot Gold Daily Chart:
Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 900.00 levels. If broken can see further fall to $872.00 and $828.00 , If market holds above $944.00 further rally can be seen towards $972.00 and $1016.00
Recommendation:
As market have given a recent fall can show some correction upside till $925, trader can wait unless market break this level, if market again come down from this level and break $919 range; can sell with a stop loss of $948 for the target of $903, $876 and $860 .Short term bearish ness can be seen if Crude oil prices continue down trend and Dollar remains strong.
Regards and Thanks
Kamlesh Jogi
Commodities Research Analyst.
Friday, August 1, 2008
Strong US dollar negative for Bullion and Metals
Dollar retreats further against most major currencies in early US session Q2 GDP missed expectation and grew at 1.9% annualized rate. GDP price index was rose much less than expected at 1.1%.
Personal consumption grew 1.5% while PCE core was also below expecting, growing 2.1%. Jobless claims released today surged sharply to 448k,
adding more pressure to the greenback. Though, better than expected Chicago PMI is providing some support to the greenback.
Impact: A Strong dollar is always negative for bullion and metal prices, while weakness in energy is supporting the down move.
Regards,
Kamlesh Jogi
Commodities Research Analyst
Personal consumption grew 1.5% while PCE core was also below expecting, growing 2.1%. Jobless claims released today surged sharply to 448k,
adding more pressure to the greenback. Though, better than expected Chicago PMI is providing some support to the greenback.
Impact: A Strong dollar is always negative for bullion and metal prices, while weakness in energy is supporting the down move.
Regards,
Kamlesh Jogi
Commodities Research Analyst
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Bullion afftected by weaknes in crdue and recovery in US Dollar
Bullion may get pressure due to strong dollar and weakness in crude oil, major dips can be used as buying opportunities.
Strong Dollar:
Dollar fought back yesterday on the back of strong rally in the stock markets, pullback in oil prices, and a stronger than expected CPI reading but the momentum is so far mild. Fed minutes might sound a bit more hawkish than Bernanke's testimony, noting that some committee members said that some firming in policy would be appropriate very soon? to fight inflation. Nevertheless, markets are not that convinced yet with interest rates futures showing 41% chance of a hike by Dec, down from 44% a week ago.
Weakness in Crude Oil
Oil prices plunged four dollars on Wednesday, extending this week's spectacular losses after a surprise jump in crude reserves in the United States, traders said. Prices had already tumbled Tuesday in the biggest fall in 17 years amid rising concerns about sluggish US economic growth that could dampen global demand for crude oil. Prices fell on news of a build in US crude oil reserves. The US Energy Information Administration said inventories rose by 3.0 million barrels to 296.9 million barrels in the week ending July 11, confounding market expectations of a decline of 2.2 million barrels. However, the decline in oil prices from last Friday's record high levels above 147 dollars may be short-lived, analysts said, noting that the increase in US energy stockpiles reflected slowing demand in a sluggish US economy, the world's largest energy consumer. According to the US government, Americans consumption of petroleum products fell two percent over the past four weeks, compared with the same period a year ago.A sudden shift in US diplomatic policy toward Iran announced late Tuesday also eased oil supply concerns, analysts said.
Impact and Analysis:
Bullion getting pressure from both news and may push more down if crude oil retreats, but these drops always can use for buying as bullions are still very bullish for longer term can break all time high in international markets.
Regards
Kamlesh Jogi
Commodities Research Analyst
Strong Dollar:
Dollar fought back yesterday on the back of strong rally in the stock markets, pullback in oil prices, and a stronger than expected CPI reading but the momentum is so far mild. Fed minutes might sound a bit more hawkish than Bernanke's testimony, noting that some committee members said that some firming in policy would be appropriate very soon? to fight inflation. Nevertheless, markets are not that convinced yet with interest rates futures showing 41% chance of a hike by Dec, down from 44% a week ago.
Weakness in Crude Oil
Oil prices plunged four dollars on Wednesday, extending this week's spectacular losses after a surprise jump in crude reserves in the United States, traders said. Prices had already tumbled Tuesday in the biggest fall in 17 years amid rising concerns about sluggish US economic growth that could dampen global demand for crude oil. Prices fell on news of a build in US crude oil reserves. The US Energy Information Administration said inventories rose by 3.0 million barrels to 296.9 million barrels in the week ending July 11, confounding market expectations of a decline of 2.2 million barrels. However, the decline in oil prices from last Friday's record high levels above 147 dollars may be short-lived, analysts said, noting that the increase in US energy stockpiles reflected slowing demand in a sluggish US economy, the world's largest energy consumer. According to the US government, Americans consumption of petroleum products fell two percent over the past four weeks, compared with the same period a year ago.A sudden shift in US diplomatic policy toward Iran announced late Tuesday also eased oil supply concerns, analysts said.
Impact and Analysis:
Bullion getting pressure from both news and may push more down if crude oil retreats, but these drops always can use for buying as bullions are still very bullish for longer term can break all time high in international markets.
Regards
Kamlesh Jogi
Commodities Research Analyst
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
Alert::Crude Oil loosing strength may push gold-SIlver and Copper down.
Crude-oil futures tumbled more than $5 a barrel Tuesday, suffering the biggest daily loss in nearly four months, as the rising dollar and economic worries spurred a broad sell-off in commodities for a second straight day.
Crude oil for August delivery closed at $136.04 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 3.8%, or $5.33, the biggest one-day loss in value since March 19. Earlier it slumped $6.23 to an intraday low of $135.14 a barrel.
Crude has lost $9.25 over the past two sessions.
Impact : Crude Oil prices are major indicator for other commodites and having main impact on Bullion and Metals prcies. If this fall continue and market breaks major support, we can more fall in Gold - Silver and Copper prices.
Regards ,
Kamlesh Jogi
Crude oil for August delivery closed at $136.04 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 3.8%, or $5.33, the biggest one-day loss in value since March 19. Earlier it slumped $6.23 to an intraday low of $135.14 a barrel.
Crude has lost $9.25 over the past two sessions.
Impact : Crude Oil prices are major indicator for other commodites and having main impact on Bullion and Metals prcies. If this fall continue and market breaks major support, we can more fall in Gold - Silver and Copper prices.
Regards ,
Kamlesh Jogi
Thursday, July 3, 2008
ECB hikes key rate to 4.25%
The European Central Bank on Thursday made good on a threat to hike its key interest rate for the first time in 13 months in a bid to tamp down inflation expectations.
The ECB announced it had boosted its key lending rate by 25 basis points, or a quarter of a percentage point, to 4.25%. Attention turns now to ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet's monthly news conference at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
The move came after Trichet repeatedly sounded warnings that commodity-led inflation pressures raised the danger of feeding a wage-price spiral.
Markets currently see strong odds the ECB will hike rates twice more within a year, a scenario some economists see as unlikely given darkening growth prospects for the euro zone.
Trichet, however, is likely to maintain a hawkish tone in the news conference, said Juergen Michels, a European economist at Citigroup, underlining market expectations for further tightening of monetary policy.
The rate hike comes as the ECB and other central banks grapple with the monetary-policy dilemma posed by surging inflation pressures and a slowing economy.
Imapct ; Data is slightly positive for Euro region and will support Bullions and Meatls prcies in india as well.
Regards ,
Kamlesh Jogi
The ECB announced it had boosted its key lending rate by 25 basis points, or a quarter of a percentage point, to 4.25%. Attention turns now to ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet's monthly news conference at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
The move came after Trichet repeatedly sounded warnings that commodity-led inflation pressures raised the danger of feeding a wage-price spiral.
Markets currently see strong odds the ECB will hike rates twice more within a year, a scenario some economists see as unlikely given darkening growth prospects for the euro zone.
Trichet, however, is likely to maintain a hawkish tone in the news conference, said Juergen Michels, a European economist at Citigroup, underlining market expectations for further tightening of monetary policy.
The rate hike comes as the ECB and other central banks grapple with the monetary-policy dilemma posed by surging inflation pressures and a slowing economy.
Imapct ; Data is slightly positive for Euro region and will support Bullions and Meatls prcies in india as well.
Regards ,
Kamlesh Jogi
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
MCX Copper August is expected to take correction
Mcx Copper August is expected to take correction in coming days, where market gave a rally from 331 levels to a high of 369.20. RSI is above 70 levle is indicating an overbought market. Market can fall towards the low of 360.40 and on the break of it can touch next level of 355 and 350.50. If market sustains below 350.50 then only further down fall can be seen. Short term strong resistance is seen near 376.70, on the break of it can test next level of 393 and 416.70
Recommendation - MCX Copper August : Sell at 368-369 Target 362 and 357 Stop Loss at 377
Recommendation - MCX Copper August : Sell at 368-369 Target 362 and 357 Stop Loss at 377
Saturday, June 28, 2008
Weekly Spot Gold Technical Outlook : Kamlesh Jogi
Sudden rise in Crude Oil prices and weaker dollar is supporting this bullishness in Spot Gold. Spot gold registered weekly high near 931.90 which is +$65.20 from last weeks low. Low registered this week is 874.10. Spot gold finished its weekly bullish move near 929.80, bit higher then 9 days moving average of 903.11
Technically Gold have turned bullish on the break of short-term resistance of 909 which will act as a initial support now. Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed above short term and medium term EMA, which supports bulls. MACD is heading up wards in positive region, showing increase in bullish momentum.
The 13-day RSI over 70 indicates the market is approaching overbought levels. It is a mildly bearish indicator. Current 13 Days RSI is 63.008, which still supporting bulls.
Next support below initial support of 909 is seen at 895 and 873 while long term support still there in range of 857-848 ranges.
As market have broken previous resistance of 909 and 917, Next major resistance is seen near 935, if breaks and sustains above it will turn into next level of 954 and 977. Strong resistance is seen near 977.
Regrds,
Kamlesh Jogi
Commodity research Analyst
Technically Gold have turned bullish on the break of short-term resistance of 909 which will act as a initial support now. Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed above short term and medium term EMA, which supports bulls. MACD is heading up wards in positive region, showing increase in bullish momentum.
The 13-day RSI over 70 indicates the market is approaching overbought levels. It is a mildly bearish indicator. Current 13 Days RSI is 63.008, which still supporting bulls.
Next support below initial support of 909 is seen at 895 and 873 while long term support still there in range of 857-848 ranges.
As market have broken previous resistance of 909 and 917, Next major resistance is seen near 935, if breaks and sustains above it will turn into next level of 954 and 977. Strong resistance is seen near 977.
Regrds,
Kamlesh Jogi
Commodity research Analyst
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Crude Oil Inventory - Impact and Analysis
Crude supplies climbed by 800,000 barrels to 301.8 million for the week ended June 20, according to the Energy Department Wednesday. They had fallen a total of nearly 25 million in the last five weeks. Motor gasoline supplies fell 100,000 barrels to 208.8 million barrels.
Distillate stocks were up 2.8 million barrels at 119.4 million barrels. Refinery utilization was at 88.6% compared with 89.3% of capacity a week earlier. Following the news, August crude was last down $2 at $135 a barrel in New York.
Impact & Analysis
Market already registered a fall of more then $3 per barrel in NYMEX Crude Oil futures; a fresh buying can emerge as speculative buyers are still there in market. Technically these levels are good for buying.
Regards,
Kamlesh Jogi
Commodity Analyst
Distillate stocks were up 2.8 million barrels at 119.4 million barrels. Refinery utilization was at 88.6% compared with 89.3% of capacity a week earlier. Following the news, August crude was last down $2 at $135 a barrel in New York.
Impact & Analysis
Market already registered a fall of more then $3 per barrel in NYMEX Crude Oil futures; a fresh buying can emerge as speculative buyers are still there in market. Technically these levels are good for buying.
Regards,
Kamlesh Jogi
Commodity Analyst
Fed keep interest rate unchanged; impact and analysis
The Federal Reserve closed the door on a series of rapid rate hikes but opened the window a crack for rate hikes down the road.
In a statement released after the Fed held its target for short-term interest rates steady at 2%, the central bank sharpened its focus on inflation, saying that the risks posed to the economy by upward pressure on prices have increased.
The Fed statement generally matches the expectations of most Fed watchers, who had predicted the central bank would sharpen its inflation rhetoric without explicitly saying when rates would rise
Impact:
Gold futures expected to move higher after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady but raised concerns over inflation.
Regards,
Kamlesh Jogi
Commodity Analyst
In a statement released after the Fed held its target for short-term interest rates steady at 2%, the central bank sharpened its focus on inflation, saying that the risks posed to the economy by upward pressure on prices have increased.
The Fed statement generally matches the expectations of most Fed watchers, who had predicted the central bank would sharpen its inflation rhetoric without explicitly saying when rates would rise
Impact:
Gold futures expected to move higher after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady but raised concerns over inflation.
Regards,
Kamlesh Jogi
Commodity Analyst
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
India's rupee gained the most in two weeks
India's rupee gained the most in more than two weeks after the central bank announced the biggest interest-rate increase since 2000 to curb inflation. Indian rupee last seen at 42.73 with net gain of 35 Pips. The rupee may extend today's advance as investors regain confidence in India's ability to tackle the fastest price growth in 13 years.
India's rupee gained the most in more than two weeks after the central bank announced the biggest interest-rate increase since 2000 to curb inflation. Indian rupee last seen at 42.73 with net gain of 35 Pips. The rupee may extend today's advance as investors regain confidence in India's ability to tackle the fastest price growth in 13 years.
The currency rose from near a 14-month low after the RBI increased the repurchase rate by 0.5 percentage point late yesterday to 8.5 percent and told banks to increase the proportion of deposits kept aside as reserve, the so-called cash-reserve ratio, by a similar margin to 8.75 percent.
There seems to be a sense of emergency in the monetary action, and it should very much be there. This is reasonably positive for the rupee. The central bank announced monetary tightening measures for the second time in two weeks after the inflation rate in Asia's third-largest economy almost tripled this year to touch 11.05 percent in the first week of this month. The Reserve Bank's key repurchase rate is at the highest since 2002.
The rupee's gains were capped by speculation the nation's decision to raise interest rates will fail to reverse losses in the currency this year as a rising oil import bill widens the current-account deficit.
Regards,
Kamlesh Jogi
Commodities Research Analyst.
India's rupee gained the most in more than two weeks after the central bank announced the biggest interest-rate increase since 2000 to curb inflation. Indian rupee last seen at 42.73 with net gain of 35 Pips. The rupee may extend today's advance as investors regain confidence in India's ability to tackle the fastest price growth in 13 years.
The currency rose from near a 14-month low after the RBI increased the repurchase rate by 0.5 percentage point late yesterday to 8.5 percent and told banks to increase the proportion of deposits kept aside as reserve, the so-called cash-reserve ratio, by a similar margin to 8.75 percent.
There seems to be a sense of emergency in the monetary action, and it should very much be there. This is reasonably positive for the rupee. The central bank announced monetary tightening measures for the second time in two weeks after the inflation rate in Asia's third-largest economy almost tripled this year to touch 11.05 percent in the first week of this month. The Reserve Bank's key repurchase rate is at the highest since 2002.
The rupee's gains were capped by speculation the nation's decision to raise interest rates will fail to reverse losses in the currency this year as a rising oil import bill widens the current-account deficit.
Regards,
Kamlesh Jogi
Commodities Research Analyst.
Monday, June 23, 2008
Weekly Spot Gold Technical Analysis:
International Spot Gold is trading a tight range of 857 -930 from last 15 days, making volatile movement. Any breakout is required to confirm further trend as Crude Oil and US Dollar are key driving factors.
Weekly Spot Gold Technical Analysis:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed above short term and medium term EMA, which supports bulls. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum. The 13-day RSI near 54 and increasing upside indicating bullishness in market, if goes above 70 will make it over bought.
Market is having major resistance at 909 and on the break of it will turn more bullish toward 917 and 928. Strong resistance is there at 928 for long term trend and if break it can go further up till 973.
Initial Support can be seen at 895 on break of it will turn more bearish towards 874.60 and 857. Strong support can be seen at 857 for long term and if break it can fall further to 831 and 785.
Regards,
Kamlesh Jogi
Commodities Research Analyst.
Weekly Spot Gold Technical Analysis:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed above short term and medium term EMA, which supports bulls. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum. The 13-day RSI near 54 and increasing upside indicating bullishness in market, if goes above 70 will make it over bought.
Market is having major resistance at 909 and on the break of it will turn more bullish toward 917 and 928. Strong resistance is there at 928 for long term trend and if break it can go further up till 973.
Initial Support can be seen at 895 on break of it will turn more bearish towards 874.60 and 857. Strong support can be seen at 857 for long term and if break it can fall further to 831 and 785.
Regards,
Kamlesh Jogi
Commodities Research Analyst.
Friday, June 20, 2008
Nigerian oil production has fallen
Nigerian oil production has now fallen to 1.8 million barrels a day following recent attacks on oil facilities by militants, local daily the Guardian reports Friday, citing the finance minister.
The Guardian quoted Remi Babalola, minister of state for finance, as saying in Abuja Thursday that with a forced oil cut through the destruction of pipelines by militants, Nigeria's production capacity has fallen to 1.8 million barrels a day from 2.4 million barrels a day.
Regards ,
Kamlesh Jogi
The Guardian quoted Remi Babalola, minister of state for finance, as saying in Abuja Thursday that with a forced oil cut through the destruction of pipelines by militants, Nigeria's production capacity has fallen to 1.8 million barrels a day from 2.4 million barrels a day.
Regards ,
Kamlesh Jogi
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
WBMS Repoort : Global aluminum market was in a 458,000 metric ton surplus
The global aluminum market was in a 458,000 metric ton surplus in the first four months of 2008, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics said Wednesday.
This compares with a 29,000 ton surplus in the same period last year.
Demand for primary aluminum was 12.55 million tons, 464,000 tons more than the equivalent total for January to April 2007.
Production rose 894,000 tons to 13.01 million tons during the same period, the WBMS said.
Impact ; This reprot is slightly negative for Aluminium prices.
Regards,
Kamlesh Jogi
This compares with a 29,000 ton surplus in the same period last year.
Demand for primary aluminum was 12.55 million tons, 464,000 tons more than the equivalent total for January to April 2007.
Production rose 894,000 tons to 13.01 million tons during the same period, the WBMS said.
Impact ; This reprot is slightly negative for Aluminium prices.
Regards,
Kamlesh Jogi
WBMS Report - World copper market was in a deficit of 42,000
The world copper market was in a deficit of 42,000 metric tons during the first four months of 2008, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics said Wednesday.
This compares with a deficit of 135,800 tons for the same period of 2007.
Copper mine production for the first four months of the year was 4.93 million tons, 3.6% lower than in January to April 2007. Refined production rose 1.7% to 5.996 million tons.
Consumption in January to April was 6.04 million tons, virtually unchanged from the same period of the previous year.
Impact ; This is slightly positive for Copper prices.
regards ,
Kamlesh Jogi
This compares with a deficit of 135,800 tons for the same period of 2007.
Copper mine production for the first four months of the year was 4.93 million tons, 3.6% lower than in January to April 2007. Refined production rose 1.7% to 5.996 million tons.
Consumption in January to April was 6.04 million tons, virtually unchanged from the same period of the previous year.
Impact ; This is slightly positive for Copper prices.
regards ,
Kamlesh Jogi
MCX Gold range boung, need a clear breakout to confirm trend.- Kamlesh Jogi
MCX Gold August bounded in tight range of 12250-12334 follwing tight range in currecny segment.
International Spot gold currently trading at $886, mainly trading in range of 880.70 -888, need to break out of major support or resistnace to confirm fresh direction.
Technical Commentary :
Technical are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 869 levels. If broken can see further fall to 854 and 841 , Pivot level is seen at 882,If market holds above 897 further rally can be seen towards 910 and 927
Currency Factor:
Markets are bounded in tight range today as consolidation continues. Main focus in the European session is BoE meeting minutes which is expected to show a 1-8 vote to keep rates unchanged earlier this month.
Nevertheless, the impact on the markets could be mild even in case of surprises as the minutes itself is not really expected to deliver much newer information than Governor's King's open letter to Chancellor Darling released yesterday.
Other data to be released today included Swiss ZEW which is expected to drop further to -60.8 in Jun. UK CBI industrial trend is expected to drop further to -12 in Apr. Canadian leading indicators will be released in the US session and is expected to climb 0.1% in May.
Regards ,
Kamlesh Jogi
International Spot gold currently trading at $886, mainly trading in range of 880.70 -888, need to break out of major support or resistnace to confirm fresh direction.
Technical Commentary :
Technical are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 869 levels. If broken can see further fall to 854 and 841 , Pivot level is seen at 882,If market holds above 897 further rally can be seen towards 910 and 927
Currency Factor:
Markets are bounded in tight range today as consolidation continues. Main focus in the European session is BoE meeting minutes which is expected to show a 1-8 vote to keep rates unchanged earlier this month.
Nevertheless, the impact on the markets could be mild even in case of surprises as the minutes itself is not really expected to deliver much newer information than Governor's King's open letter to Chancellor Darling released yesterday.
Other data to be released today included Swiss ZEW which is expected to drop further to -60.8 in Jun. UK CBI industrial trend is expected to drop further to -12 in Apr. Canadian leading indicators will be released in the US session and is expected to climb 0.1% in May.
Regards ,
Kamlesh Jogi
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Lead stockpiles at LME posted the biggest daily gain in eight months.
MCX Lead June dropped to a low of 76.50 on Tuesday afternoon, registered days high near 78.30. Move was supported by LME inventory data. Before it Lead June registered contract low near 75.40 on Monday.
Lead stockpiles monitored by the London Metal Exchange posted the biggest daily gain in eight months.
Inventories tracked by the exchange jumped 11,550 metric tons, or 14 percent, to 94,875 tons, according to LME data. That’s the biggest increase since Oct. 17.
Technical Outlook:
Lead technically is neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 75.5 levels. If broken can see further fall to 73.9 and 72.4, If market holds above 77.0 further rally can be seen towards 78.6 and 80.1
Regards
Kamlesh Jogi
Lead stockpiles monitored by the London Metal Exchange posted the biggest daily gain in eight months.
Inventories tracked by the exchange jumped 11,550 metric tons, or 14 percent, to 94,875 tons, according to LME data. That’s the biggest increase since Oct. 17.
Technical Outlook:
Lead technically is neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 75.5 levels. If broken can see further fall to 73.9 and 72.4, If market holds above 77.0 further rally can be seen towards 78.6 and 80.1
Regards
Kamlesh Jogi
Monday, June 16, 2008
MCX Copper sluggish on china import and production news
MCX Copper June trading in tight range as china import increased by 13.7% from a year earlier while china production in May rose by 18% on year. Both news are contradiction to trend.
China imported 420,000 metric tons of copper concentrate in May, up 13.7% from a year earlier, according to preliminary data issued by the General Administration of Customs Monday. The country imported a total of 2.29 million tons of copper concentrate in the first five months, up 21.6% on year, it added.
Impact : Data is supportive for copper prices.
China's copper output in May rose 18% on year to 324,000 metric tons, the National Bureau of Statistics said Monday. Total output in the January-May period rose 19% to 1.49 million tons, it said.
Impact : Data is weak for Copper prcies.
Technical Outlook :
Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expceted to remian positive above 342.5 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 345.9 and 350.0 , If market sustains below 338.4 can see a further fall towards 335.1 and 331.0
Recommendation ; Buy on dips of 338 Target 342 and 347 Stop loss at 334.20
China imported 420,000 metric tons of copper concentrate in May, up 13.7% from a year earlier, according to preliminary data issued by the General Administration of Customs Monday. The country imported a total of 2.29 million tons of copper concentrate in the first five months, up 21.6% on year, it added.
Impact : Data is supportive for copper prices.
China's copper output in May rose 18% on year to 324,000 metric tons, the National Bureau of Statistics said Monday. Total output in the January-May period rose 19% to 1.49 million tons, it said.
Impact : Data is weak for Copper prcies.
Technical Outlook :
Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expceted to remian positive above 342.5 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 345.9 and 350.0 , If market sustains below 338.4 can see a further fall towards 335.1 and 331.0
Recommendation ; Buy on dips of 338 Target 342 and 347 Stop loss at 334.20
Saturday, June 14, 2008
MCX Copper futures bounced on Friday
MCX Copper futures bounced on Friday as traders covered short positions a day after the metal hit its lowest levels in more than two months, MCX Copper June closed nwear 339.60 with gain of Rs. 4.60 per kg after registering days low near 334.30, while days high was registered near 341.80. Comex most-active July copper contract rose 5.10 cents to settle at $3.5890 per pound.
Support came from increasing consumer prices, the U.S. consumer-price index increased 0.6% in May, the Labor Department said Friday. Wall Street has expected an increase of about 0.5%.
Inventories of copper stored in London Metal Exchange warehouses rose 550 metric tons Friday, leaving them at 121,175. The most recent Comex inventory data, released late Thursday afternoon, were steady at 11,040 short tons.
Regards ,
Kamlesh Jogi
Support came from increasing consumer prices, the U.S. consumer-price index increased 0.6% in May, the Labor Department said Friday. Wall Street has expected an increase of about 0.5%.
Inventories of copper stored in London Metal Exchange warehouses rose 550 metric tons Friday, leaving them at 121,175. The most recent Comex inventory data, released late Thursday afternoon, were steady at 11,040 short tons.
Regards ,
Kamlesh Jogi
MCX Crude Oil July trades volatile on firday
MCX Crude Oil July traded volatile on Friday following NYMEX movement, closed with some losses from previous day. Registered days high near 5888 and closed near 5796 with loss of Rs. 21 per barrel after registering days low near 5749.
Saudi Arabia is considering increasing its oil production to 10 million barrels a day from 9.45 million, the Middle East Economic Survey reported Friday, a week before a high-profile meeting between crude producers and consumers in Jeddah.
If realized, the output boost would lend credibility to the meeting, set for June 22, to discuss what measures can be taken to usher calm back into global oil markets. Oil prices recently have exhibited unprecedented volatility, with the front-month contract rising by almost $11 on June 6.
Regards,
Kamlesh Jogi
Saudi Arabia is considering increasing its oil production to 10 million barrels a day from 9.45 million, the Middle East Economic Survey reported Friday, a week before a high-profile meeting between crude producers and consumers in Jeddah.
If realized, the output boost would lend credibility to the meeting, set for June 22, to discuss what measures can be taken to usher calm back into global oil markets. Oil prices recently have exhibited unprecedented volatility, with the front-month contract rising by almost $11 on June 6.
Regards,
Kamlesh Jogi
MCX Gold Closes with gains
MCX Gold futures spent much of Friday slightly lower, but bounced back to end in mildly positive territory on support from inflationary indications even as a higher dollar and lower oil capped buoyancy.
MCX Gold August closed near 12133 with gain of 25 from previous closing, market registered days low near 11983 and days high near 12159.
But the downside was also limited because many participants didn't want to go short over the weekend. Participants also booked some profits ahead of the weekend.
Gold futures finished modestly higher Friday, helped by inflationary indications even as a higher dollar and lower oil capped its buoyancy.
Support came from increasing consumer prices ,the U.S. consumer-price index increased 0.6% in May, the Labor Department said Friday. Wall Street has expected an increase of about 0.5%.
Regards,
Kamlesh Jogi
MCX Gold August closed near 12133 with gain of 25 from previous closing, market registered days low near 11983 and days high near 12159.
But the downside was also limited because many participants didn't want to go short over the weekend. Participants also booked some profits ahead of the weekend.
Gold futures finished modestly higher Friday, helped by inflationary indications even as a higher dollar and lower oil capped its buoyancy.
Support came from increasing consumer prices ,the U.S. consumer-price index increased 0.6% in May, the Labor Department said Friday. Wall Street has expected an increase of about 0.5%.
Regards,
Kamlesh Jogi
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