Commodities - Technical Analysis

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Monday, December 1, 2008

Crude Oil - Important fundamentlas factors

Bearish factors include OPEC's decision over the weekend to wait until its December 17 meeting to decide whether to cut production another notch. OPEC called on non-OPEC producers such as Russia, Norway and Mexico to help with a production cut and to underpin crude oil prices.

Jan crude oil prices last Friday closed -1 cent at $54.43 and Jan gasoline prices closed +0.88 cents at 120.96 cents.

Bullish factors last week included

(1) the sharp rally in global stocks, which reduced pessimism about the global economy,

(2) the likelihood for an eventual OPEC production cut, and

(3) some short-covering after crude oil prices were able to stabilize for a week.

Bearish factors included

(1) OPEC's dithering over a production cut,

(2) OPEC President Khelil's comment that some OPEC countries can't find buyers for all their oil, and

(3) continued exp ectations for weak global economic growth and fuel demand.

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