Commodities - Technical Analysis

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Thursday, July 17, 2008

Bullion afftected by weaknes in crdue and recovery in US Dollar

Bullion may get pressure due to strong dollar and weakness in crude oil, major dips can be used as buying opportunities.

Strong Dollar:

Dollar fought back yesterday on the back of strong rally in the stock markets, pullback in oil prices, and a stronger than expected CPI reading but the momentum is so far mild. Fed minutes might sound a bit more hawkish than Bernanke's testimony, noting that some committee members said that some firming in policy would be appropriate very soon? to fight inflation. Nevertheless, markets are not that convinced yet with interest rates futures showing 41% chance of a hike by Dec, down from 44% a week ago.

Weakness in Crude Oil

Oil prices plunged four dollars on Wednesday, extending this week's spectacular losses after a surprise jump in crude reserves in the United States, traders said. Prices had already tumbled Tuesday in the biggest fall in 17 years amid rising concerns about sluggish US economic growth that could dampen global demand for crude oil. Prices fell on news of a build in US crude oil reserves. The US Energy Information Administration said inventories rose by 3.0 million barrels to 296.9 million barrels in the week ending July 11, confounding market expectations of a decline of 2.2 million barrels. However, the decline in oil prices from last Friday's record high levels above 147 dollars may be short-lived, analysts said, noting that the increase in US energy stockpiles reflected slowing demand in a sluggish US economy, the world's largest energy consumer. According to the US government, Americans consumption of petroleum products fell two percent over the past four weeks, compared with the same period a year ago.A sudden shift in US diplomatic policy toward Iran announced late Tuesday also eased oil supply concerns, analysts said.

Impact and Analysis:

Bullion getting pressure from both news and may push more down if crude oil retreats, but these drops always can use for buying as bullions are still very bullish for longer term can break all time high in international markets.

Regards

Kamlesh Jogi

Commodities Research Analyst

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Alert::Crude Oil loosing strength may push gold-SIlver and Copper down.

Crude-oil futures tumbled more than $5 a barrel Tuesday, suffering the biggest daily loss in nearly four months, as the rising dollar and economic worries spurred a broad sell-off in commodities for a second straight day.




Crude oil for August delivery closed at $136.04 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 3.8%, or $5.33, the biggest one-day loss in value since March 19. Earlier it slumped $6.23 to an intraday low of $135.14 a barrel.

Crude has lost $9.25 over the past two sessions.

Impact : Crude Oil prices are major indicator for other commodites and having main impact on Bullion and Metals prcies. If this fall continue and market breaks major support, we can more fall in Gold - Silver and Copper prices.

Regards ,

Kamlesh Jogi

Thursday, July 3, 2008

ECB hikes key rate to 4.25%

The European Central Bank on Thursday made good on a threat to hike its key interest rate for the first time in 13 months in a bid to tamp down inflation expectations.

The ECB announced it had boosted its key lending rate by 25 basis points, or a quarter of a percentage point, to 4.25%. Attention turns now to ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet's monthly news conference at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
The move came after Trichet repeatedly sounded warnings that commodity-led inflation pressures raised the danger of feeding a wage-price spiral.
Markets currently see strong odds the ECB will hike rates twice more within a year, a scenario some economists see as unlikely given darkening growth prospects for the euro zone.

Trichet, however, is likely to maintain a hawkish tone in the news conference, said Juergen Michels, a European economist at Citigroup, underlining market expectations for further tightening of monetary policy.

The rate hike comes as the ECB and other central banks grapple with the monetary-policy dilemma posed by surging inflation pressures and a slowing economy.

Imapct ; Data is slightly positive for Euro region and will support Bullions and Meatls prcies in india as well.

Regards ,

Kamlesh Jogi

Tuesday, July 1, 2008

MCX Copper August is expected to take correction

Mcx Copper August is expected to take correction in coming days, where market gave a rally from 331 levels to a high of 369.20. RSI is above 70 levle is indicating an overbought market. Market can fall towards the low of 360.40 and on the break of it can touch next level of 355 and 350.50. If market sustains below 350.50 then only further down fall can be seen. Short term strong resistance is seen near 376.70, on the break of it can test next level of 393 and 416.70



Recommendation - MCX Copper August : Sell at 368-369 Target 362 and 357 Stop Loss at 377

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