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Source: Future Source
Nymex crude traded in a narrow range earlier in the day on Friday, holding on to the 1.9% leap noted in the previous session, as market participants waited for fresh cues to move prices. Nymex crude slipped by almost a dollar as dollar strengthened after the positive job's data eased expectations that Fed may impose another cut in interest rates and on lack of immediate threat to the energy infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico from storm activity.
Dollar rose after reports noted that Non-farm payrolls rose 110,000 in September. Also August data was revised to an 89,000 rise from a previous estimate of a 4,000 decline. Earlier, the August report showed the first decline in jobs in four years, sparking concerns that the US subprime mortgage problems were affecting larger economy.
Concerns that US subprime market woes may affect larger economy induced US Fed to impose a sharper than expected cut in interest rates. Oil prices rallied last month when the Fed cut rates more than forecast, because it was expected this would aid economic growth and therefore energy demand.
While the stronger jobs data bode well for the economy, oil traders have been focusing on dollar movements in recent weeks and a slump in the currency has been a factor in helping push prices to their record. A weaker dollar gives oil producers extra incentive to drive prices higher. It also renders dollar-denominated crude oil cheaper in other currencies
Nymex crude fell earlier this week following some correction in the market after the rally witnessed last week however the losses were recouped on Thursday as funds indulged in buying after the dip in prices and also as US weekly petroleum report noted an unexpected decline in gasoline and distillate stocks.
Easing storm concerns, The US National Hurricane Center said Friday it did not expect any of six Atlantic low pressure systems it is watching to develop into a tropical cyclone Friday.
Yesterday, Nymex crude Nov. contract settled at $81.22 per barrel with a decline of 22 cents and traded in a range of $80.51 to $81.68 per barrel.
Over the week, front month contract noted a decline of 44 cents or 0.5% and moved in a range of $78.87 to $81.75 per barrel. It noted a 4 cent rise in the previous week. Nymex crude slipped over last week after noting five weekly gains
Yesterday, ICE Brent crude Nov. contract settled at $78.90 per barrel with a decline of 7 cents and traded in a range of $78.17 to $79.21 per barrel.
Over the week, front month contract noted a decline of 27 cents or 0.3% and traded in a range of $76.56 to $79.54 per barrel. It dropped by 13 cents in the previous week
Middle-East crude oil Dec. contract on ICE ended yesterday at $74.51 per barrel with a decline of 3 cents while Oman crude oil contract for Dec. delivery on Dubai Mercantile Exchange ended yesterday at $75.47 per barrel with a gain of 32 cents.
As per the COT report, speculators for Nymex light sweet crude oil futures trimmed their long and short positions but continued to be net long for the week ended Oct. 2. They raised their net long position by 12906 contracts or 29.6% in the report week after trimming it by 19.6% in the previous week.
Nymex crude front month contract noted a modest fall over last week after jotting five straight weekly gains. As per a survey by Bloomberg, crude oil prices may decline in the coming week on speculation that US inventories will rise because of refinery maintenance and increased OPEC output
While there are no immediate storm concerns, the Atlantic hurricane season is far from over. Also Colorado State University forecasters expect above-average hurricane activity in October and November, with four named storms, two hurricanes and one major hurricane.
In the coming week traders will look ahead for the International Energy Agency's monthly oil market report which will be released Oct. 11 and US Energy Information Administration's winter fuel outlook due Oct. 09.
The reports could hold more weight than the agencies' regular monthly reports because the record crude prices have been largely driven by forecasts of a supply deficit in the fourth quarter and early 2008. Any expectations for a warmer-than-normal winter, or expectations of slowing demand, could hurt price perceptions, while on the other hand, decreases in non-OPEC production or a shrugging of subprime concerns could have the other effect.
Dollar rose after reports noted that Non-farm payrolls rose 110,000 in September. Also August data was revised to an 89,000 rise from a previous estimate of a 4,000 decline. Earlier, the August report showed the first decline in jobs in four years, sparking concerns that the US subprime mortgage problems were affecting larger economy.
Concerns that US subprime market woes may affect larger economy induced US Fed to impose a sharper than expected cut in interest rates. Oil prices rallied last month when the Fed cut rates more than forecast, because it was expected this would aid economic growth and therefore energy demand.
While the stronger jobs data bode well for the economy, oil traders have been focusing on dollar movements in recent weeks and a slump in the currency has been a factor in helping push prices to their record. A weaker dollar gives oil producers extra incentive to drive prices higher. It also renders dollar-denominated crude oil cheaper in other currencies
Nymex crude fell earlier this week following some correction in the market after the rally witnessed last week however the losses were recouped on Thursday as funds indulged in buying after the dip in prices and also as US weekly petroleum report noted an unexpected decline in gasoline and distillate stocks.
Easing storm concerns, The US National Hurricane Center said Friday it did not expect any of six Atlantic low pressure systems it is watching to develop into a tropical cyclone Friday.
Yesterday, Nymex crude Nov. contract settled at $81.22 per barrel with a decline of 22 cents and traded in a range of $80.51 to $81.68 per barrel.
Over the week, front month contract noted a decline of 44 cents or 0.5% and moved in a range of $78.87 to $81.75 per barrel. It noted a 4 cent rise in the previous week. Nymex crude slipped over last week after noting five weekly gains
Yesterday, ICE Brent crude Nov. contract settled at $78.90 per barrel with a decline of 7 cents and traded in a range of $78.17 to $79.21 per barrel.
Over the week, front month contract noted a decline of 27 cents or 0.3% and traded in a range of $76.56 to $79.54 per barrel. It dropped by 13 cents in the previous week
Middle-East crude oil Dec. contract on ICE ended yesterday at $74.51 per barrel with a decline of 3 cents while Oman crude oil contract for Dec. delivery on Dubai Mercantile Exchange ended yesterday at $75.47 per barrel with a gain of 32 cents.
As per the COT report, speculators for Nymex light sweet crude oil futures trimmed their long and short positions but continued to be net long for the week ended Oct. 2. They raised their net long position by 12906 contracts or 29.6% in the report week after trimming it by 19.6% in the previous week.
Nymex crude front month contract noted a modest fall over last week after jotting five straight weekly gains. As per a survey by Bloomberg, crude oil prices may decline in the coming week on speculation that US inventories will rise because of refinery maintenance and increased OPEC output
While there are no immediate storm concerns, the Atlantic hurricane season is far from over. Also Colorado State University forecasters expect above-average hurricane activity in October and November, with four named storms, two hurricanes and one major hurricane.
In the coming week traders will look ahead for the International Energy Agency's monthly oil market report which will be released Oct. 11 and US Energy Information Administration's winter fuel outlook due Oct. 09.
The reports could hold more weight than the agencies' regular monthly reports because the record crude prices have been largely driven by forecasts of a supply deficit in the fourth quarter and early 2008. Any expectations for a warmer-than-normal winter, or expectations of slowing demand, could hurt price perceptions, while on the other hand, decreases in non-OPEC production or a shrugging of subprime concerns could have the other effect.
