Commodities - Technical Analysis

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Monday, September 10, 2007

LME Inventory

LME Update:

Aluminum 878625 +11700
Copper 137600 -175
Nickel 26760 +828
Lead 24175 -300
Zinc 74250 +4100

Impact: Data is negative for Aluminum, Nickel and Zinc. Positive for Copper and Lead

Currency Update

Focus on UK PPI and Fed Speakers

Yen and Swissy are mildly higher on risk aversion as the week starts. Meanwhile, dollar remains weak in tight range. UK PPI inflation will be the main featured economic data today. No US economic data is scheduled and markets focus will likely turn to Fed speakers including Lockhart, Yellen, Fisher and Mishkin. While a cut is widely expected, opinions on whether it will be 25bps or 50bps, or whether there will be an inter-meeting cut, is divided. Fed speakers will continue to be focus of the markets.

UK PPI input is expected to have another monthly drop of -0.2% mom while yoy rate is expected to be 1.9%. PPI output is expected to rise 0.2% mom, 2.5% yoy in Aug. Released in Asia, Japan Q2 GDP final print revised further lower than expected to -1.2% annualized rate, with qoq rate down to -0.3%. Though, the yen remains supported by risk aversion.

Saturday, September 8, 2007

US Economic Data Next Week

Important US Data Next Week
Week of September 10 - September 14
Date IST Release For Consensus Prior
Sep 10 0:30 Consumer Credit Jul $9.5B $13.2B
Sep 11 18:00 Trade Balance Jul -$59.0B -$58.1B
Sep 12 20:00 Crude Inventories 07.szept NA -3972K
Sep 13 18:00 Initial Claims 08.szept 330K 318K
Sep 13 23:30 Treasury Budget Aug -$85.0B -$64.7B
Sep 14 18:00 Current Account Q2 -$190.0B -$192.6B
Sep 14 18:00 Export Prices ex-ag. Aug NA 0.0%
Sep 14 18:00 Import Prices ex-oil Aug NA 0.2%
Sep 14 18:00 Retail Sales Aug 0.5% 0.3%
Sep 14 18:00 Retail Sales ex-auto Aug 0.2% 0.4%
Sep 14 18:45 Industrial Production Aug 0.3% 0.3%
Sep 14 18:45 Capacity Utilization Aug 82.0% 81.9%
Sep 14 19:30 Business Inventories Jul 0.3% 0.4%
Sep 14 19:30 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Sep máj.83 ápr.83

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